Bitcoin Cycles Point to the Next Trough:
1. Market Structure:
1.1 HTF Analysis:
Bitcoin has been trading in a downward-sloping channel Since March of 2024.
Bitcoin failed to break out above the channel resistance four times.
“The trend is your friend until it ends.” There is no evidence to suggest that the current trend will be different.
Bias: Short.
Figure 1: BTC HTF M.S.
1.2 LTF Analysis:
The Daily chart is bullish. Bitcoin held the 60K HL and made a double bottom.
As long as the 60K support holds, the bias is bullish.
Bias: Long.
Figure 2: BTC LTF M.S.
1.3 M.S. Summary:
The LTF is bullish, and there is no sign of weakness yet. Initiating a short position is premature, but profit-taking at the top is a no-brainer.
Invalidation: Breakout above 69K and successful retest.
2. Support and Resistance:
2.1 Resistance:
Dynamic Resistance: Channel resistance at 68.2K
Horizontal Resistance: Between 69K and 70K.
2.2 Support:
Horizontal Support: 60K
Horizontal Support: Between 57.5K and 59K.
Dynamic Support: 58K.
2.3 Support and Resistance Summary:
Bitcoin is at resistance. At this point, there is no clear sign of rejection. As we get closer to the cycle’s completion (from October 18th), I expect BTC to generate signs of weakness.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels
3. Bitcoin Short Cycles:
3.1 60D Cycle:
The 60D cycle began on September 6th.
This cycle is 60% complete.
The Next cycle trough will likely be on November 8th.
Bias: Short, but not yet.
Figure 4: Bitcoin 60D Cycle
3.2 100D Cycle:
The 100D cycle Began on August 5th.
This cycle is 70% complete.
The next cycle trough will likely be on November 13th.
Bias: Short. But not yet.
Figure 5: Bitcoin 100D Cycle:
3.3 Cycle Summary:
The odds favor a decline since the 60D and 100D cycles are in their final phase. If not immediately (Friday, October 18th), then as soon as next week (August 20th).
4. Volume:
A high-volume node with little or no price movement can signal a coming top in an uptrend. The high-volume node on October 15th did not lead to a breakout, which signals weakening demand.
There is no bearish divergence.
Bias: Neutral
Figure 6: Bitcoin Price Volume:
5. Momentum:
5.1 Daily RSI: Healthy. RSI is above 50, not oversold, and shows no bearish divergence.
Figure 7: Bitcoin Daily RSI
5.2 4H RSI: The 4H TF RSI is oversold and shows a weak bearish divergence.
Figure 8: Bitcoin 4H RSI
Bias: Neutral
6. OI:
A weak bearish divergence between price and OI/
Bias: Neutral.
Figure 9: Bitcoin OI
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wOoJWX7k 7
Summary:
Although Bitcoin is in the process of topping out, there isn’t enough evidence to support placing a short trade. However, it is advisable, in my opinion, to TP.
1.1 HTF Analysis:
Bitcoin has been trading in a downward-sloping channel Since March of 2024.
Bitcoin failed to break out above the channel resistance four times.
“The trend is your friend until it ends.” There is no evidence to suggest that the current trend will be different.
Bias: Short.
Figure 1: BTC HTF M.S.
1.2 LTF Analysis:
The Daily chart is bullish. Bitcoin held the 60K HL and made a double bottom.
As long as the 60K support holds, the bias is bullish.
Bias: Long.
Figure 2: BTC LTF M.S.
1.3 M.S. Summary:
The LTF is bullish, and there is no sign of weakness yet. Initiating a short position is premature, but profit-taking at the top is a no-brainer.
Invalidation: Breakout above 69K and successful retest.
2. Support and Resistance:
2.1 Resistance:
Dynamic Resistance: Channel resistance at 68.2K
Horizontal Resistance: Between 69K and 70K.
2.2 Support:
Horizontal Support: 60K
Horizontal Support: Between 57.5K and 59K.
Dynamic Support: 58K.
2.3 Support and Resistance Summary:
Bitcoin is at resistance. At this point, there is no clear sign of rejection. As we get closer to the cycle’s completion (from October 18th), I expect BTC to generate signs of weakness.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels
3. Bitcoin Short Cycles:
3.1 60D Cycle:
The 60D cycle began on September 6th.
This cycle is 60% complete.
The Next cycle trough will likely be on November 8th.
Bias: Short, but not yet.
Figure 4: Bitcoin 60D Cycle
3.2 100D Cycle:
The 100D cycle Began on August 5th.
This cycle is 70% complete.
The next cycle trough will likely be on November 13th.
Bias: Short. But not yet.
Figure 5: Bitcoin 100D Cycle:
3.3 Cycle Summary:
The odds favor a decline since the 60D and 100D cycles are in their final phase. If not immediately (Friday, October 18th), then as soon as next week (August 20th).
4. Volume:
A high-volume node with little or no price movement can signal a coming top in an uptrend. The high-volume node on October 15th did not lead to a breakout, which signals weakening demand.
There is no bearish divergence.
Bias: Neutral
Figure 6: Bitcoin Price Volume:
5. Momentum:
5.1 Daily RSI: Healthy. RSI is above 50, not oversold, and shows no bearish divergence.
Figure 7: Bitcoin Daily RSI
5.2 4H RSI: The 4H TF RSI is oversold and shows a weak bearish divergence.
Figure 8: Bitcoin 4H RSI
Bias: Neutral
6. OI:
A weak bearish divergence between price and OI/
Bias: Neutral.
Figure 9: Bitcoin OI
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wOoJWX7k 7
Summary:
Although Bitcoin is in the process of topping out, there isn’t enough evidence to support placing a short trade. However, it is advisable, in my opinion, to TP.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.