Bitcoin Weekly Review September 8th - 14th
TLDR:
My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K.
After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a temporary relief rally and a resumption of the downtrend. However, this rally can be savage and even go beyond the previous high of 65K.
If I am correct, next week will be extremely difficult to trade. My best bet is to wait for 49K to get hit and buy with low leverage or wait for a trend reversal confirmation.
I realize I strayed from the conventional interpretation of a corrective WXYZ. Some of you were kind enough to reach out and offer your opinion. I will include these as alternative scenarios.
Bitcoin Macro Outlook:
I believe Bitcoin is in the final stages of a complex wave four correction. After This correction period, I expect a continuation in wave five to around 80K.
Where do I draw the line?
Price: A weekly close below 43.6K, which is the 0.618 of wave 3.
Time: if this correction lasts after October 2024.
Figure 1: Macro Outlook.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Correction Price & Time Limits.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook:
The selling pressure on Bitcoin is close to exhaustion. However, I still expect the price to make an LL next week.
I outlined the path the price will take. “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” (Helmuth von Moltke). The vital part of the plan is for the price to make a double-bottom scenario at around 49K. Invalidation is next.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook Invalidation:
Bitcoin holds the trendline and advances in a triangle breakout.
This scenario is less likely for two reasons:
1. Because of the violation of the Gann Angle (2/1).
2. The daily wick from August 5th has yet to be filled.
Figure 4: Bitcoin Short-Term Invalidation.
Figure 5: Gann Angles & Wick Fill.
Time Over Price:
Gann believed that "Time is the most important factor of all." He argued that when sufficient time has elapsed, it could overbalance price, leading to a change in market trends.
My premise is that we are due for a short relief rally after next week. Whatever happens after September 14th, I will look for long trades.
Best Wishes
My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K.
After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a temporary relief rally and a resumption of the downtrend. However, this rally can be savage and even go beyond the previous high of 65K.
If I am correct, next week will be extremely difficult to trade. My best bet is to wait for 49K to get hit and buy with low leverage or wait for a trend reversal confirmation.
I realize I strayed from the conventional interpretation of a corrective WXYZ. Some of you were kind enough to reach out and offer your opinion. I will include these as alternative scenarios.
Bitcoin Macro Outlook:
I believe Bitcoin is in the final stages of a complex wave four correction. After This correction period, I expect a continuation in wave five to around 80K.
Where do I draw the line?
Price: A weekly close below 43.6K, which is the 0.618 of wave 3.
Time: if this correction lasts after October 2024.
Figure 1: Macro Outlook.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Correction Price & Time Limits.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook:
The selling pressure on Bitcoin is close to exhaustion. However, I still expect the price to make an LL next week.
I outlined the path the price will take. “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” (Helmuth von Moltke). The vital part of the plan is for the price to make a double-bottom scenario at around 49K. Invalidation is next.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook Invalidation:
Bitcoin holds the trendline and advances in a triangle breakout.
This scenario is less likely for two reasons:
1. Because of the violation of the Gann Angle (2/1).
2. The daily wick from August 5th has yet to be filled.
Figure 4: Bitcoin Short-Term Invalidation.
Figure 5: Gann Angles & Wick Fill.
Time Over Price:
Gann believed that "Time is the most important factor of all." He argued that when sufficient time has elapsed, it could overbalance price, leading to a change in market trends.
My premise is that we are due for a short relief rally after next week. Whatever happens after September 14th, I will look for long trades.
Best Wishes
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