Bound to 12500: Triple Zigzag Scenario
Updated
This long-lasting downtrend may be forming what Elliott Wave Theory calls a Triple Zigzag. Why a Triple Zigzag? Let's consider it in order.
1. Support line
First, let's check the support line.
I drew a Gann fan (deep green) from the May 2020 high to the bottom of the 2020 summer descending wedge. The eight fan lines thus obtained have worked surprisingly well. We can expect the 8/1 to function again as support at some point in the future.
2. Timing
But when? Look at the baseline of the biggest double top - for example, the Fibonacci Extension 1.000 from the November 2021 high (ATH) to the March 2022 low. What was this price, OK, it coincides with September 2020 high, right? If the decline continues, it will certainly check at least one of FE 1.000 and Gann fan 8/1. Not to mention the cross points of both of them when it comes to supporting strength.
3. Triple Zigzag
A decline to 12500 could be a complex corrective wave with the waveform WXYXZ - Triple Zigzag - a prolonged, diagonal movement. A triple zigzag comprises three waves (W, Y, Z) in the progressive direction and two corrective waves (X, X) each comprising three sub-waves, thus often denoted as 3-3-3-3-3 as a whole. As I analyzed in the related article, the recent upside is likely to be a corrective wave that can be divided into three waves. If so, at least we might have got 3-3-3-3 and then a Triple Zigzag is a most likely complete shape. Rather, there will be no other wave with such a shape that can be identified with a name and shape. According to Elliott, an X wave often has a very strange shape, and we may have seen it recently. One thing to note is that X waves usually retrace more than 50%. However, the recent rise was only a 27.2% retracement of the previous decline. If retracement is 50%, or FE 0.500, the price must go back to around 32k, in which case further downside will be needed to complete a Triple Zigzag (I marked around 8500).
Note
Correction: The start and end points of Gann Fan.No: May 2020 high to the bottom of 2020 summer...
Yes: April 2021 high to the bottom of 2021 summer...
Sorry for the confusion.
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