BTC expectation (1W 1D 1H) (Support & Resistance, Trend)
In my previous post on BTC, I viewed the current downtrend as a temporary pullback before the USD presidential election.
We now have limited time left before the election and the upcoming week is going to be very important. Although the election takes place on the 4th, results may take several days, with the vote-counting pace varying state to state. This might lead to significant volatility during this period.
I do technical analysis but I also respect the fundamental analysis - we cannot overlook events like the election outcome.
✔ The price remains above the resistance line of the weekly downtrend, giving us expectation of a continued uptrend.
✔ In the hourly chart, I expected the pullback to reach as low as 67.3k where the purple arrow points. The pullback was not as aggressive as it could've been so we unfortunately missed that opportunity.
69.3k line has been resilient for the last few days but eventually failed to hold the pullback longer. The price is currently in the 68 - 69k zone which is crucial.
💡 I think there are 5 scenarios we can expect:
1. The price may move up again from here with 68 - 69k zone acting as a support zone. The aggressive dip did stop as soon as it reached 68k. However, I find this approach risky because it's just an assumption based on the zone - price does not always respect key zones & levels. While more price actions in the past indicate the higher chances it might, but it is never a guarantee. (If it was, we would all be a billionaire.) We should always react rather than predict and only trade when we see a confirmation. And even then, there's always a chance of still being wrong.
2. The price may dip further down to 67.2 - 67.3k, which in my opinion, is much more reliable level than 68 - 69k. This level aligns with the resistance line of the weekly downtrend.
If we can confirm a reversal here, I think it would make a great sign of a bull run.
If it does not, however, probability of an uptrend drops significantly.
3. The price may react around 67.3k (if it ever reaches it), but might end up continue dropping to 65.3k. While a reversal here could be a good entry opportunity, it would be less reliable than the previous one.
4. This is our last chance to hope for a reversal. If we confirm a reversal in 63.1k, we might enter for LONG. However, if the price ever drops to this level, I wouldn't put much hope.
5. This is the last scenario - unlike the above four, this one is scenario of BTC failing to keep up the uptrend and switching back to the downtrend. If the price reaches below the last trendline, likelihood of it reversing becomes very low.
✔ Conclusion
So what is the best scenario among the five for us?
In my opinion, it is scenario 2 because it proves that the resistance line of the weekly downtrend now acts as a support. This trend line is more important than any other lines in the chart.
If the price falls below this line, our chance of seeing an uptrend becomes lower. I am not saying it becomes impossible because there's never a 100% guarantee in this market - but the chances are so low and risks are too high that I wouldn't bet on it as a disciplined trader. We should always stay disciplined and manage risks.
Few successful gambles may give you a temporal gain, but will eventually drag you down in long term.
Avoid making assumptions based on key levels - they aren't respected every time.
Always trade after confirming the reversal because we never know what happens.
React, not predict.
Comment
Comment
We see the price has barely touched the resistance line and is now climbing back up.
The price currently holds above the 68 - 69k zone.
So is this a signal we were looking for?
Could be. The election is now just around the corner and price could move either way.
I will wait until the price crosses this temporary resistance line to confirm the reversal.
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