Bitcoin’s breakout above the $100,000 mark on May 8, 2025—its highest level since early January—reflects renewed risk-on sentiment across global markets, supported by easing U.S.-China tension and expectations of favorable crypto regulation. Spot ETF flows have also played a pivotal role: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $1 billion in net inflows this month, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading demand, underpinning liquidity in the $100k zone. Despite the enthusiasm, trading volumes on leading exchanges have shown signs of plateauing, hinting at cautious engagement from larger players.
Possible Scenario
Support Analysis
1. $100,000 Psychological Support
After initially spiking to $105,784, BTC retreated to hover just above $100k, which has transitioned into a crucial support level. A decisive hold here would confirm buyer conviction at round-number thresholds.
$97,000 Major Technical Floor: Beneath six figures, the $97,000 region—previously a resistance zone in April—now offers strong demand, reinforced by the convergence of the 50- and 100-day moving averages.
$92,000 Secondary Support: Should broader market risk aversion emerge, traders could see a retracement back to $ 92K, where on-chain data indicates accumulation by long-term holders. This level aligns with the 200-day moving average, often cited as a bear-market safeguard.
2. ETF-Driven Cushion
Spot ETF inflows continue to absorb sell-side pressure, potentially dampening volatility around support levels. Historical data shows ETFs acted as a buffer during the March sell-off, suggesting they may again prevent sharp dives if BTC dips towards $90k–$100k.
Resistance Analysis
1. $105,000 Near-Term Cap
BTC peaked at approximately $105,784 on May 12, encountering supply from short-term profit-takers. A close above this region would target the early-2025 all-time high near $109,917.
2. $109,917 All-Time High
Surpassing the January ATH at $109k remains a key objective for bulls. However, historical patterns reveal increasingly subdued momentum on successive tests of this level, indicating potential exhaustion if attempted too quickly.
3.Upside Target $120,000
Most Analysts highlight a possible extension to $120k should institutional demand persist and macro conditions remain supportive.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $100,000 mark hinges on its capacity to stave off profit-taking around headline-grabbing price points and sustain ETF-driven support. Key technical floors at $100k and $ 97K—reinforced by moving-average convergence—provide a strong base, while resistance levels at $105k and the all-time high near $109.6k represent the next hurdles. If these zones are negotiated successfully, a new leg toward $120k could unfold; if not, traders should watch for a pullback to the mid-$90,000 range for renewed entries.
Overall, barring sudden negative macro shocks, the outlook favors BTC maintaining its foothold at six figures, underpinning continued upside momentum.
Pro Tips:
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
Possible Scenario
Support Analysis
1. $100,000 Psychological Support
After initially spiking to $105,784, BTC retreated to hover just above $100k, which has transitioned into a crucial support level. A decisive hold here would confirm buyer conviction at round-number thresholds.
$97,000 Major Technical Floor: Beneath six figures, the $97,000 region—previously a resistance zone in April—now offers strong demand, reinforced by the convergence of the 50- and 100-day moving averages.
$92,000 Secondary Support: Should broader market risk aversion emerge, traders could see a retracement back to $ 92K, where on-chain data indicates accumulation by long-term holders. This level aligns with the 200-day moving average, often cited as a bear-market safeguard.
2. ETF-Driven Cushion
Spot ETF inflows continue to absorb sell-side pressure, potentially dampening volatility around support levels. Historical data shows ETFs acted as a buffer during the March sell-off, suggesting they may again prevent sharp dives if BTC dips towards $90k–$100k.
Resistance Analysis
1. $105,000 Near-Term Cap
BTC peaked at approximately $105,784 on May 12, encountering supply from short-term profit-takers. A close above this region would target the early-2025 all-time high near $109,917.
2. $109,917 All-Time High
Surpassing the January ATH at $109k remains a key objective for bulls. However, historical patterns reveal increasingly subdued momentum on successive tests of this level, indicating potential exhaustion if attempted too quickly.
3.Upside Target $120,000
Most Analysts highlight a possible extension to $120k should institutional demand persist and macro conditions remain supportive.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $100,000 mark hinges on its capacity to stave off profit-taking around headline-grabbing price points and sustain ETF-driven support. Key technical floors at $100k and $ 97K—reinforced by moving-average convergence—provide a strong base, while resistance levels at $105k and the all-time high near $109.6k represent the next hurdles. If these zones are negotiated successfully, a new leg toward $120k could unfold; if not, traders should watch for a pullback to the mid-$90,000 range for renewed entries.
Overall, barring sudden negative macro shocks, the outlook favors BTC maintaining its foothold at six figures, underpinning continued upside momentum.
Pro Tips:
Armed Your Trading Arsenal with advanced tools like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments at Phemex. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
The Most Efficient Crypto Trading & Investment Platform: phemex.com/
Phemex Next-Gen Web3 Social Network: pulse.social/
Phemex Next-Gen Web3 Social Network: pulse.social/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.