Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I pulled up the 4hr and there is plenty going on with the candles this morning. We had a pretty decent dip after that weekly close that took us below 9k if only briefly. We have since recovered somewhat which is encouraging... But is it enough to entice the bulls to jump? Are the bears worn out already? They have been in hibernation since the dip to 3800 back in early March. Lets take a look at the chart.
The first thing I want to touch on is the dojis. I havent really touched on this in a good while and its easy to forget little helpful facts like this but many times a doji can signal a reversal. As you can see on the chart (Yellow Arrows) a doji preceded each reversal I pointed out on the chart. Im not telling you every single doji will result in a reversal of the current trend. In fact you should definitely not think that way because once you become complacent like this in the trading world you make mistakes. I think this doji strategy is a solid one. But you must remain vigilant and take all the necessary precautions. Set a stop loss.
Next thing I want to bring up is the dip to 8900 Sunday evening into Monday morning. We can see that the dip to 8900 was short lived and we climbed right back up above 9k very quickly after the dip. This is because there was a lot of buying pressure around this key area of support/resistance. Since the consolidation last year between last years ATH of 14k to the 9k region shows there is plenty of people eyeing this 9k region. Bots too. There is a lot of support in this general area. The way we can see that there was a lot of buyers at the 9k level is as soon as we dipped below it the bulls fought back and muscled us back above 9k once again. This filled some buy orders and caused the reversal to where we sit now and that is 9500. That big doji below that big red candle is also an indicator that the buyers are fighting back.
In fact I notice many times during uptrends and downtrends if a candle has a big wick you should really pay attention to that. Just a tip. Not every wick will signal a reversal but I would keep my eye on them none the less. This is just some advice and things I have noticed over the past 16 months I have been actively trading and doing TA. Just look at the dip to 8900 after Sundays close. There was a decent wick which resulted in a small reversal. Also the dip to 3800 had a big wick which preceded a reversal. Keep your eyes on these events. But always mitigate the risks involved whenever possible. Nothing in trading is 100%.
Now back to the 4hr. I see we climbed back up above 9500 overnight. Nice work bulls. Problem now is the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr cloud are pretty much merged in the same area which could make it difficult to conquer. The cloud is very thin here so the bulls may take this as an opportunity. But at the same time its discouraging to see resistance above you like that. It takes away confidence from the market. We did climb back above the daily 50 MA where we are currently sitting which is a great sign. We still havent closed a daily candle below the daily 50 MA in 2 months.
Although looking at a zoomed out version on the weekly I see that the writing is on the wall. It will take a lot of effort just to break above this years ATH of 10520. The reason Im saying this is the descending resistance that the candles have been respecting since the ATH of 20k. This descending resistance has plagued us for over 2 years. I am not clairvoyant but I would assume we will experience at least one more downtrend and another uptrend before we do break this resistance in question. I mean we could do it right now but after the recovery from 3800 I am left wondering if the bulls have the fuel to bust through the resistance. Only time will tell.
A little patience can go a long way folks. This is business as usual as far as post halving. None of the previous halvings really resulted in monstrous gains right away. The halving is clearly in our rearview mirror... We dont have a lot of data because this is only the 3rd halving event. So my advice is watch the charts closely. With all the BS going on all over the world with pandemics and riots etc it is a tumultuous time for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still a preteen folks... We are all wrapped in one of the most successful experiments in the history of man (as far as money is concerned) and we are all basically playing this all by ear. When people tell me "There is no hope for BTC because no retail will adopt it" I always scoff. They have no clue. An entire dark market place thrives on Bitcoin. Not just drugs and hitmen either. Plenty of things can and have been purchased with BTC. Not to say it is perfect as speeds can be slow. But at the end of the day I say if Bitcoin simply turns out to be a hedge similar to gold its still a win. I wish I could go ahead 20 years and see where Bitcoin sits. Im pretty sure I would say "Great Scott!" But WTFDIK right???
TLDR: Bitcoin is freedom. Freedom is essential.
Extra: Protestors burned down the central bank in Lebanon because of how awful the govt is and the devaluation of the fiat they use in the country. This is where Bitcoin shines. Bitcoin (in terms of Lebanese money) went up significantly in price. Not necessarily because of Bitcoin increasing in value, but rather the loss of value in their fiat currency. I think this will be the case more and more as we learn the basics of supply and demand.
The first thing I want to touch on is the dojis. I havent really touched on this in a good while and its easy to forget little helpful facts like this but many times a doji can signal a reversal. As you can see on the chart (Yellow Arrows) a doji preceded each reversal I pointed out on the chart. Im not telling you every single doji will result in a reversal of the current trend. In fact you should definitely not think that way because once you become complacent like this in the trading world you make mistakes. I think this doji strategy is a solid one. But you must remain vigilant and take all the necessary precautions. Set a stop loss.
Next thing I want to bring up is the dip to 8900 Sunday evening into Monday morning. We can see that the dip to 8900 was short lived and we climbed right back up above 9k very quickly after the dip. This is because there was a lot of buying pressure around this key area of support/resistance. Since the consolidation last year between last years ATH of 14k to the 9k region shows there is plenty of people eyeing this 9k region. Bots too. There is a lot of support in this general area. The way we can see that there was a lot of buyers at the 9k level is as soon as we dipped below it the bulls fought back and muscled us back above 9k once again. This filled some buy orders and caused the reversal to where we sit now and that is 9500. That big doji below that big red candle is also an indicator that the buyers are fighting back.
In fact I notice many times during uptrends and downtrends if a candle has a big wick you should really pay attention to that. Just a tip. Not every wick will signal a reversal but I would keep my eye on them none the less. This is just some advice and things I have noticed over the past 16 months I have been actively trading and doing TA. Just look at the dip to 8900 after Sundays close. There was a decent wick which resulted in a small reversal. Also the dip to 3800 had a big wick which preceded a reversal. Keep your eyes on these events. But always mitigate the risks involved whenever possible. Nothing in trading is 100%.
Now back to the 4hr. I see we climbed back up above 9500 overnight. Nice work bulls. Problem now is the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr cloud are pretty much merged in the same area which could make it difficult to conquer. The cloud is very thin here so the bulls may take this as an opportunity. But at the same time its discouraging to see resistance above you like that. It takes away confidence from the market. We did climb back above the daily 50 MA where we are currently sitting which is a great sign. We still havent closed a daily candle below the daily 50 MA in 2 months.
Although looking at a zoomed out version on the weekly I see that the writing is on the wall. It will take a lot of effort just to break above this years ATH of 10520. The reason Im saying this is the descending resistance that the candles have been respecting since the ATH of 20k. This descending resistance has plagued us for over 2 years. I am not clairvoyant but I would assume we will experience at least one more downtrend and another uptrend before we do break this resistance in question. I mean we could do it right now but after the recovery from 3800 I am left wondering if the bulls have the fuel to bust through the resistance. Only time will tell.
A little patience can go a long way folks. This is business as usual as far as post halving. None of the previous halvings really resulted in monstrous gains right away. The halving is clearly in our rearview mirror... We dont have a lot of data because this is only the 3rd halving event. So my advice is watch the charts closely. With all the BS going on all over the world with pandemics and riots etc it is a tumultuous time for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still a preteen folks... We are all wrapped in one of the most successful experiments in the history of man (as far as money is concerned) and we are all basically playing this all by ear. When people tell me "There is no hope for BTC because no retail will adopt it" I always scoff. They have no clue. An entire dark market place thrives on Bitcoin. Not just drugs and hitmen either. Plenty of things can and have been purchased with BTC. Not to say it is perfect as speeds can be slow. But at the end of the day I say if Bitcoin simply turns out to be a hedge similar to gold its still a win. I wish I could go ahead 20 years and see where Bitcoin sits. Im pretty sure I would say "Great Scott!" But WTFDIK right???
TLDR: Bitcoin is freedom. Freedom is essential.
Extra: Protestors burned down the central bank in Lebanon because of how awful the govt is and the devaluation of the fiat they use in the country. This is where Bitcoin shines. Bitcoin (in terms of Lebanese money) went up significantly in price. Not necessarily because of Bitcoin increasing in value, but rather the loss of value in their fiat currency. I think this will be the case more and more as we learn the basics of supply and demand.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.