Market Analysis – February 25, 2025
1. Market Context
• The market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a prevailing sense of fear and fatigue.
• However, it is emphasized that bear markets are a normal part of the crypto cycle, and it is important to maintain perspective.
2. Bullish News Despite the Downtrend
• Institutional Buying:
• MicroStrategy has acquired ~20,356 BTC for ~$2 billion, continuing its large-scale dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. The company now holds nearly 500,000 BTC.
• A Japanese investment firm, Metaplanet, has also purchased ~135 BTC for ~$13 million and aims to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 21,000 BTC by 2026.
• Key Takeaway:
• These institutional purchases demonstrate long-term confidence in Bitcoin, even during market corrections.
3. Market Outlook and Key Takeaways
• Confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains despite the current downturn.
• The recommendation is to be patient and cautious due to high volatility.
• Market downturns often precede strong rebounds, but precise timing is uncertain.
4. ETF Flows and Leverage Liquidations – Key Insights from Charts
Bitcoin ETF Flows
• The ETF flow chart shows significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, particularly on February 24, 2025 (-$516.4M).
• Notable outflows have been recorded in Grayscale GBTC (-$22.16B in total), which continues to lose assets due to high fees and profit-taking.
• Fidelity and BlackRock ETFs are showing relatively stable inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT accumulating over $40.72B in total.
• Interpretation:
• These ETF flows suggest that while some institutions are accumulating BTC through ETFs, the net flow remains negative in recent days.
• This adds downward pressure to Bitcoin’s price and aligns with the bearish market sentiment.
Bitcoin Exchange Liquidation Map
• Current BTC Price: ~$89,268
• The liquidation map shows high levels of leverage liquidations, with significant short liquidations concentrated in the
89K–$90K range.
• The chart also reveals strong liquidation clusters above $100K, indicating that a price rally past this level could trigger mass short squeezes.
• Interpretation:
• The presence of large liquidation zones around89K and above $100K suggests a highly leveraged market.
• A potential move above $90K–$95K could lead to short squeezes, pushing prices higher.
• However, continued downward pressure and ETF outflows increase the risk of further long liquidations if Bitcoin drops below $87K.
5. Technical Analysis & Market Confirmation
1. Overall Downtrend
• Across five timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H, 1D), market indicators predominantly show bearish trends.
• The market environment is described as difficult, with strong selling pressure.
2. Institutional Accumulation
• Repeated Bitcoin acquisitions by major players suggest potential for a future rebound.
• On higher timeframes (12H–1D), Koncorde Divergence sometimes shows positive signals (“Azul”), indicating institutional accumulation despite broader market sell-offs.
3. Short-Term Oversold Conditions
• Indicators on the 2H and 4H timeframes signal extreme overselling:
• ISPD close to 0.1
• RSI below 25
• HPI at very low levels
• The analysis suggests that while the drop is significant, sharp declines often precede potential recoveries.
4. Bitcoin vs. Altcoins Divergence
• Bitcoin remains a “key asset”, while altcoins are showing fragility due to fragmented liquidity.
• Multi-timeframe indicators confirm that Bitcoin is also affected by the downturn but still holds stronger appeal than altcoins.
6. Key Trading Zones & Recommendations
1. Most Relevant Timeframes for Entry
• Short-term trades (2H–4H):
• Strong oversold signals (ISPD <0.1, low RSI, HPI <10) may provide buying opportunities for technical rebounds.
• Swing trades (8H–12H):
• Waiting for stabilization or a shift in MTFTI from bearish to neutral/green is recommended before entering.
2. Major Support & Resistance Levels
• Support Levels:
• Short-term (2H/4H): ~$87,000–87,300 (potential rebound area due to overselling).
• Daily: ~$80,300–80,500 (a critical pivot level; breaking below could trigger further declines).
• Resistance Levels:
• $94,000–95,500 (high AVWAP zones in 2H/4H/8H).
• $100,000–102,000 (Daily HiAVWAP resistance; breaking above could shift market structure).
3. Potential Trading Strategies
• Scalping/Intraday (2H–4H):
• Look for bullish divergences and monitor if the ~$87,000 support is tested.
• A potential rebound could target the $90,500–92,000 zone.
• Swing Trading (8H–1D):
• Waiting for stronger reversal signals, such as ISPD Div Pro rising above 0.5–0.6 or MTFTI turning neutral/green on 8H–1D timeframes.
• Long-Term (HODL Strategy):
• Continued DCA accumulation remains a viable strategy, given institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin.
7. Final Conclusion
• Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend, reinforced by ETF outflows and high leverage liquidations.
• The ETF flow chart shows recently intensified outflows, with Grayscale GBTC seeing the most significant losses.
• The liquidation map reveals high leverage concentration at89K–$90K, suggesting potential short squeezes if BTC moves upward.
• Key Levels to Watch:
• Supports: ~$87,000 (short-term), $80,000–81,000 (critical daily level).
• Resistances: ~$95,000, then $100,000–102,000, where a breakout could liquidate a large volume of shorts.
• Strategic Approach:
• Short-term: Consider speculative buys on a retest of ~
87K if indicators confirm a bounce.
• Long-term: Wait for clear trend reversal signals (MTFTI turning neutral/green, ISPD above 0.5, etc.).
• Caution: If the $80–81K support breaks, the downtrend may accelerate, possibly testing lower liquidity levels.
summary:
• The downturn is real, but capitulation and accumulation signals are emerging.
• ETF outflows and leverage liquidations play a crucial role in price movements.
• Key levels (87K, $80K) should be closely monitored for positioning.
• Patience, caution, and close market observation are advised.
1. Market Context
• The market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a prevailing sense of fear and fatigue.
• However, it is emphasized that bear markets are a normal part of the crypto cycle, and it is important to maintain perspective.
2. Bullish News Despite the Downtrend
• Institutional Buying:
• MicroStrategy has acquired ~20,356 BTC for ~$2 billion, continuing its large-scale dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. The company now holds nearly 500,000 BTC.
• A Japanese investment firm, Metaplanet, has also purchased ~135 BTC for ~$13 million and aims to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 21,000 BTC by 2026.
• Key Takeaway:
• These institutional purchases demonstrate long-term confidence in Bitcoin, even during market corrections.
3. Market Outlook and Key Takeaways
• Confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains despite the current downturn.
• The recommendation is to be patient and cautious due to high volatility.
• Market downturns often precede strong rebounds, but precise timing is uncertain.
4. ETF Flows and Leverage Liquidations – Key Insights from Charts
Bitcoin ETF Flows
• The ETF flow chart shows significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, particularly on February 24, 2025 (-$516.4M).
• Notable outflows have been recorded in Grayscale GBTC (-$22.16B in total), which continues to lose assets due to high fees and profit-taking.
• Fidelity and BlackRock ETFs are showing relatively stable inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT accumulating over $40.72B in total.
• Interpretation:
• These ETF flows suggest that while some institutions are accumulating BTC through ETFs, the net flow remains negative in recent days.
• This adds downward pressure to Bitcoin’s price and aligns with the bearish market sentiment.
Bitcoin Exchange Liquidation Map
• Current BTC Price: ~$89,268
• The liquidation map shows high levels of leverage liquidations, with significant short liquidations concentrated in the
89K–$90K range.• The chart also reveals strong liquidation clusters above $100K, indicating that a price rally past this level could trigger mass short squeezes.
• Interpretation:
• The presence of large liquidation zones around
89K and above $100K suggests a highly leveraged market.• A potential move above $90K–$95K could lead to short squeezes, pushing prices higher.
• However, continued downward pressure and ETF outflows increase the risk of further long liquidations if Bitcoin drops below $87K.
5. Technical Analysis & Market Confirmation
1. Overall Downtrend
• Across five timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H, 1D), market indicators predominantly show bearish trends.
• The market environment is described as difficult, with strong selling pressure.
2. Institutional Accumulation
• Repeated Bitcoin acquisitions by major players suggest potential for a future rebound.
• On higher timeframes (12H–1D), Koncorde Divergence sometimes shows positive signals (“Azul”), indicating institutional accumulation despite broader market sell-offs.
3. Short-Term Oversold Conditions
• Indicators on the 2H and 4H timeframes signal extreme overselling:
• ISPD close to 0.1
• RSI below 25
• HPI at very low levels
• The analysis suggests that while the drop is significant, sharp declines often precede potential recoveries.
4. Bitcoin vs. Altcoins Divergence
• Bitcoin remains a “key asset”, while altcoins are showing fragility due to fragmented liquidity.
• Multi-timeframe indicators confirm that Bitcoin is also affected by the downturn but still holds stronger appeal than altcoins.
6. Key Trading Zones & Recommendations
1. Most Relevant Timeframes for Entry
• Short-term trades (2H–4H):
• Strong oversold signals (ISPD <0.1, low RSI, HPI <10) may provide buying opportunities for technical rebounds.
• Swing trades (8H–12H):
• Waiting for stabilization or a shift in MTFTI from bearish to neutral/green is recommended before entering.
2. Major Support & Resistance Levels
• Support Levels:
• Short-term (2H/4H): ~$87,000–87,300 (potential rebound area due to overselling).
• Daily: ~$80,300–80,500 (a critical pivot level; breaking below could trigger further declines).
• Resistance Levels:
• $94,000–95,500 (high AVWAP zones in 2H/4H/8H).
• $100,000–102,000 (Daily HiAVWAP resistance; breaking above could shift market structure).
3. Potential Trading Strategies
• Scalping/Intraday (2H–4H):
• Look for bullish divergences and monitor if the ~$87,000 support is tested.
• A potential rebound could target the $90,500–92,000 zone.
• Swing Trading (8H–1D):
• Waiting for stronger reversal signals, such as ISPD Div Pro rising above 0.5–0.6 or MTFTI turning neutral/green on 8H–1D timeframes.
• Long-Term (HODL Strategy):
• Continued DCA accumulation remains a viable strategy, given institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin.
7. Final Conclusion
• Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend, reinforced by ETF outflows and high leverage liquidations.
• The ETF flow chart shows recently intensified outflows, with Grayscale GBTC seeing the most significant losses.
• The liquidation map reveals high leverage concentration at
89K–$90K, suggesting potential short squeezes if BTC moves upward.• Key Levels to Watch:
• Supports: ~$87,000 (short-term), $80,000–81,000 (critical daily level).
• Resistances: ~$95,000, then $100,000–102,000, where a breakout could liquidate a large volume of shorts.
• Strategic Approach:
• Short-term: Consider speculative buys on a retest of ~
87K if indicators confirm a bounce.• Long-term: Wait for clear trend reversal signals (MTFTI turning neutral/green, ISPD above 0.5, etc.).
• Caution: If the $80–81K support breaks, the downtrend may accelerate, possibly testing lower liquidity levels.
summary:
• The downturn is real, but capitulation and accumulation signals are emerging.
• ETF outflows and leverage liquidations play a crucial role in price movements.
• Key levels (
87K, $80K) should be closely monitored for positioning.• Patience, caution, and close market observation are advised.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.