MACRO BTC ANALYSIS / BULLISH IDEA + thoughts...
Updated
First, a few thoughts / reflection as we reach this critical junction...
Let's take a step back. It's easy to get caught up in the chop/noise/hype/news. I just saw a headline that read "The Bitcoin Dream is Dead" and couldn't help but laugh... albeit a bit nervously. At risk of sounding like a Vietnam vet or something, I WAS THERE in 2017, desperately watching the crash from previous ATH of 20k, unable to sell my BTC because Coinbase was down (of course). In the coming weeks, as I watched my net worth disintegrate, I had the sense to take some profits, but was mostly ignorant about trading/TA and unable to realize the obvious reversal into a two+ year long bear market.
Perhaps traumatized by that experience, I was far too bearish for far too long this time around. It sucks to be the last bull to the party, and you have to be cautious if you're currently looking to reenter / long BTC as it hits new ATHs. You do NOT want to revert to an impulsive noob crypto investor who buys in at the top and rides the retrace down. (Stop Losses are important)
But, obviously, this is not 2017. There is a LOT more institutional money in this market, and obviously more retail every year. We've already DOUBLED the previous ATH, and many are calling for 50 - 100k BTC in the next year. At this point, it certainly seems possible, but what happens over the next few weeks will matter A LOT in terms of getting the best reentry & mitigating downside risk.
ANALYSIS:
We just had a 26% retrace, big enough to have my mother texting me her condolences... but not unheard of for btc bull run retraces. Now it looks like BTC is forming an ascending triangle, a bullish pattern, but also potentially a macro head & shoulders (bearish). Also note that the top line of the rising wedge that BTC previously traded in is still in play. I would not be surprised if we see the h&s play out as a retest of that trend line, which would shake out a lot of weak hands / those who unfortunately bought near the top, and give those with true grit a new entry.
If / when BTC breaks and holds above the new resistance level around 37k, this will indicate a continuation of the bull run.
happy trades,
CD
Let's take a step back. It's easy to get caught up in the chop/noise/hype/news. I just saw a headline that read "The Bitcoin Dream is Dead" and couldn't help but laugh... albeit a bit nervously. At risk of sounding like a Vietnam vet or something, I WAS THERE in 2017, desperately watching the crash from previous ATH of 20k, unable to sell my BTC because Coinbase was down (of course). In the coming weeks, as I watched my net worth disintegrate, I had the sense to take some profits, but was mostly ignorant about trading/TA and unable to realize the obvious reversal into a two+ year long bear market.
Perhaps traumatized by that experience, I was far too bearish for far too long this time around. It sucks to be the last bull to the party, and you have to be cautious if you're currently looking to reenter / long BTC as it hits new ATHs. You do NOT want to revert to an impulsive noob crypto investor who buys in at the top and rides the retrace down. (Stop Losses are important)
But, obviously, this is not 2017. There is a LOT more institutional money in this market, and obviously more retail every year. We've already DOUBLED the previous ATH, and many are calling for 50 - 100k BTC in the next year. At this point, it certainly seems possible, but what happens over the next few weeks will matter A LOT in terms of getting the best reentry & mitigating downside risk.
ANALYSIS:
We just had a 26% retrace, big enough to have my mother texting me her condolences... but not unheard of for btc bull run retraces. Now it looks like BTC is forming an ascending triangle, a bullish pattern, but also potentially a macro head & shoulders (bearish). Also note that the top line of the rising wedge that BTC previously traded in is still in play. I would not be surprised if we see the h&s play out as a retest of that trend line, which would shake out a lot of weak hands / those who unfortunately bought near the top, and give those with true grit a new entry.
If / when BTC breaks and holds above the new resistance level around 37k, this will indicate a continuation of the bull run.
happy trades,
CD
Note
Could this be the breakout/retest we've been waiting for???Idk. We may get another retrace to 30,300 area first, but who knows.
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