Good morning everyone and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame up and there is quite a bit going on. I chose the 4 hr to share but the other time frames have a lot going on today as well. I am going to cover the 4hr and the daily today. The weekly is pretty calm with us still finding support upon the top border of that weekly cloud. It is bullish to be above the cloud on any time frame but it looks to me that we may just fall into the cloud before too long. Every moment that passes the bears are putting more pressure on 9k to break. But it has held so far. Can we make it through the weekend above the psychological barrier of 9k? Lets take a look at the chart.
The 4hr has plenty going on and I could easily devote this entire analysis to the 4hr time frame. But I will just cover the sweet spots and spare you my incoherent ramblings. The first thing I want to cover is the fact that we are clearly below the 4hr cloud. Around 12 candles ago we tried to break through the cloud after breaking through the bottom and we got rejected after a valiant effort by the bulls to retake the range above the cloud but alas... It wasnt meant to be and we sank right back to support. Over the last few weeks 9k has been a significant price as we have found support upon 9k for over a month. We have fallen below in a few instances if only briefly only to retake the support. The reason Im bringing that up is 9k is key at this time. If we drop below after losing the 4hr 50 MA and 4hr 200 MA and 4hr cloud we can expect more blood in the street if you ask me. Of course the bulls have been bailing us out of inevitable dumps for a few weeks now. Perhaps they have another green candle in them.
I am also noticing the 4hr bollinger bands are tightening right back up pretty quickly which indicates that volatility is on the horizon. The daily bollinger bands are tighter than normal at this time as well. The daily bollinger bands are more significant than the 4hr as the bigger time frames usually equate to bigger moves. That being said we are below the daily 50 MA and we literally sank into the daily cloud for the first time in nearly 2 months. This is a recipe for bearish sentiment. We are slowly losing support as time passes and if we lose the 9k barrier 8800 may slow the descent as that is where the .236 fib lies. Either way I wouldnt expect 8800 to hold long at this point. The fomo may ensue and knee jerk selling could drop us below that and cause a domino effect. The next stop on the way down would be the bottom of the daily cloud which is pretty much merged with the daily 200 MA which is a very reliable indicator. So I would guess this is a good area to look for support (around 8300 - 8400) so in the event of a sell off we could very well see this price range. I hope the bulls have some more fuel in the rocket but only time will tell.
Regardless of the direction the market goes the best bet for any trader is to make a plan and stick to it. Set a stop loss and stop second guessing it. If you keep walking it down every time a red candle shows up you will get burned. I used to do that when I first started trading. You keep walking it down thinking that if you just walk it down another 100 dollars you will catch that inevitable pump. Let me tell you that rarely occurs. Your best bet is to let your stop loss trip and reenter when the dust settles. The only time I recommend walking a stop loss is up. You lock in that profit when you do it right. I only typically walk my stop loss up locking in profit and never actually sell myself. Rather I will just allow the stop loss to sell for me if a drop materializes. I sell from time to time but most of my sells are from the stop loss. This gives me freedom to live my life and be able to make successful trades in the process. Its not rocket science but I do get it wrong from time to time as well. The way to be successful when you trade is not to be right 100% of the time. That is impossible. Rather the best strategy is having a plan. Sticking to it. When you lose make sure you minimize the losses incurred. I know that sounds easier said than done but being a successful trader isnt all about winning. Rather its also minimizing losses. When you do lose losing 100 dollars instead of 1000 dollars is significant. Learn to minimize your losses and maximize your gains by walking that stop loss up and you will do well. Patience is also key. But WTFDIK right?
TLDR: 9k is crucial. Bulls better keep us above 9k or a drop is all but guaranteed. Have a great weekend and say no to Bitcoin SV
The 4hr has plenty going on and I could easily devote this entire analysis to the 4hr time frame. But I will just cover the sweet spots and spare you my incoherent ramblings. The first thing I want to cover is the fact that we are clearly below the 4hr cloud. Around 12 candles ago we tried to break through the cloud after breaking through the bottom and we got rejected after a valiant effort by the bulls to retake the range above the cloud but alas... It wasnt meant to be and we sank right back to support. Over the last few weeks 9k has been a significant price as we have found support upon 9k for over a month. We have fallen below in a few instances if only briefly only to retake the support. The reason Im bringing that up is 9k is key at this time. If we drop below after losing the 4hr 50 MA and 4hr 200 MA and 4hr cloud we can expect more blood in the street if you ask me. Of course the bulls have been bailing us out of inevitable dumps for a few weeks now. Perhaps they have another green candle in them.
I am also noticing the 4hr bollinger bands are tightening right back up pretty quickly which indicates that volatility is on the horizon. The daily bollinger bands are tighter than normal at this time as well. The daily bollinger bands are more significant than the 4hr as the bigger time frames usually equate to bigger moves. That being said we are below the daily 50 MA and we literally sank into the daily cloud for the first time in nearly 2 months. This is a recipe for bearish sentiment. We are slowly losing support as time passes and if we lose the 9k barrier 8800 may slow the descent as that is where the .236 fib lies. Either way I wouldnt expect 8800 to hold long at this point. The fomo may ensue and knee jerk selling could drop us below that and cause a domino effect. The next stop on the way down would be the bottom of the daily cloud which is pretty much merged with the daily 200 MA which is a very reliable indicator. So I would guess this is a good area to look for support (around 8300 - 8400) so in the event of a sell off we could very well see this price range. I hope the bulls have some more fuel in the rocket but only time will tell.
Regardless of the direction the market goes the best bet for any trader is to make a plan and stick to it. Set a stop loss and stop second guessing it. If you keep walking it down every time a red candle shows up you will get burned. I used to do that when I first started trading. You keep walking it down thinking that if you just walk it down another 100 dollars you will catch that inevitable pump. Let me tell you that rarely occurs. Your best bet is to let your stop loss trip and reenter when the dust settles. The only time I recommend walking a stop loss is up. You lock in that profit when you do it right. I only typically walk my stop loss up locking in profit and never actually sell myself. Rather I will just allow the stop loss to sell for me if a drop materializes. I sell from time to time but most of my sells are from the stop loss. This gives me freedom to live my life and be able to make successful trades in the process. Its not rocket science but I do get it wrong from time to time as well. The way to be successful when you trade is not to be right 100% of the time. That is impossible. Rather the best strategy is having a plan. Sticking to it. When you lose make sure you minimize the losses incurred. I know that sounds easier said than done but being a successful trader isnt all about winning. Rather its also minimizing losses. When you do lose losing 100 dollars instead of 1000 dollars is significant. Learn to minimize your losses and maximize your gains by walking that stop loss up and you will do well. Patience is also key. But WTFDIK right?
TLDR: 9k is crucial. Bulls better keep us above 9k or a drop is all but guaranteed. Have a great weekend and say no to Bitcoin SV
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.