Bitcoin $BTC 28-32k Target - Elliott Wave
Hi guys,
At a time when everyone has been so bearish and looking for lower targets on Bitcoin, you know that this is the time to start getting bullish, even just for a short time.
First, I'll guide you through market structure of this current bear market, then, in my next analysis, I'll look at recent price action to see if it is giving the game away as to where bitcoin is heading.
Bull Run - Nov '18 - Apr '21
There is a clear 5 wave impulsive structure from November 2018 to April 2021
https://www.tradingview.com/x/W5YeiFQ4/
Bear Market Apr ' 21 - PRESENT
Then you have a clear A-B-C pattern from June 2021 to November 2021, meaning this must be a wave B expanded flat to the 1.05 fib retracement. From then we have begun to follow an impulsive five wave C. So far, we can see a wave 1 to $32917 before a triangular wave 2 to the 0.50 at 47.4k
https://www.tradingview.com/x/G0XSkopx/
Wave 3 was a clear impulsive structure with minimum retracements down to the 1.272 fib extension with the lowest wick down to 17.6k
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4LjgiOHS/
Currently, we are in a wave 4 correction, more specifically, the impulsive C wave of a wave 4, denoted as WC.4.C
https://www.tradingview.com/x/t65o4fRi/
My most likely target for this is the 1.272 fib extension of wave 4.A to 28.6k with next being the 1.618 at 32.4k as seen on the chart above, but may fall somewhere in between.
WC.4.C.1 will most likely end at the 0.618 shown below and come to the string resistance at around 22.2-22.5k, then follow a probable 5-wave structure as shown below:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bwYsUcew/
What's Next?
I wish I can say Rocketships but I have to look at the evidence and suggest an impulsive wave 5 down and I have to say that it will most likely be nasty.
Due to the shallow wave 3, only reaching the 1.272, the 5th wave will most likely be an extended 5th wave to around the 0.786, 1 or the 1.272 extension of the wave 1:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0fhMIpq0/
There are still chances of lower targets but all I can do for now is show the most likely scenarios
Thanks for reading and let me know what you think.
Tchau
At a time when everyone has been so bearish and looking for lower targets on Bitcoin, you know that this is the time to start getting bullish, even just for a short time.
First, I'll guide you through market structure of this current bear market, then, in my next analysis, I'll look at recent price action to see if it is giving the game away as to where bitcoin is heading.
Bull Run - Nov '18 - Apr '21
There is a clear 5 wave impulsive structure from November 2018 to April 2021
https://www.tradingview.com/x/W5YeiFQ4/
Bear Market Apr ' 21 - PRESENT
Then you have a clear A-B-C pattern from June 2021 to November 2021, meaning this must be a wave B expanded flat to the 1.05 fib retracement. From then we have begun to follow an impulsive five wave C. So far, we can see a wave 1 to $32917 before a triangular wave 2 to the 0.50 at 47.4k
https://www.tradingview.com/x/G0XSkopx/
Wave 3 was a clear impulsive structure with minimum retracements down to the 1.272 fib extension with the lowest wick down to 17.6k
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4LjgiOHS/
Currently, we are in a wave 4 correction, more specifically, the impulsive C wave of a wave 4, denoted as WC.4.C
https://www.tradingview.com/x/t65o4fRi/
My most likely target for this is the 1.272 fib extension of wave 4.A to 28.6k with next being the 1.618 at 32.4k as seen on the chart above, but may fall somewhere in between.
WC.4.C.1 will most likely end at the 0.618 shown below and come to the string resistance at around 22.2-22.5k, then follow a probable 5-wave structure as shown below:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bwYsUcew/
What's Next?
I wish I can say Rocketships but I have to look at the evidence and suggest an impulsive wave 5 down and I have to say that it will most likely be nasty.
Due to the shallow wave 3, only reaching the 1.272, the 5th wave will most likely be an extended 5th wave to around the 0.786, 1 or the 1.272 extension of the wave 1:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0fhMIpq0/
There are still chances of lower targets but all I can do for now is show the most likely scenarios
Thanks for reading and let me know what you think.
Tchau
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