BTC: Bullish & Bearish Scenarios

Updated

Bullish Engulfing Pattern is confirmed. Candlestick support @ 7710.

Steve Nison's favorite pattern is called a Crack & Snap. If you want to look for a bullish entry, look at the following bullish scenario:

1. Price cracks below support.
2. Price snaps back above support with high volume.

The psychology of the move is this:

Market participant demand was sufficient enough to lay down support via a candlestick reversal signal, in a downtrend. Price broke below the demand line (crack), introducing supply. The market should fall, breaking support. Contrary to the strong bearish signals, market participants had buy orders and the market snapped above resistance on high volume. This is an extremely high probability buy scenario, if it plays out.

Assuming this does not happen, I see the 6K region as a logical level.

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If you want to see technical precursors which might indicate underlying demand, here are a few:

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The best possible reason to stay the f% out of the market, or short, is the following:

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Steve Nison Pullback to Sweet Spot strategy:

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BTCUSDT 1D - Potential Box Range scenario:

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4H BTCUSDT - Volume:
No more sellers.

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BTC Daily momentum:

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XRPBTC analysis suggests 1-4D Bitcoin rally. My target is Daily $9,000 @ EMA 30 (Nison PB&J high target).

XRPBTC:

BTCUSDT:

XRPBTC distribution occured on 8H DeMark 9. I haven't looked across the alt space but I will assume that we saw 9's across alts, suggesting mass bull trap distribution and money flow into BTC, as is evident by the current 5% move.

XRPBTC 9 EVRT (Effort vs. Result) suggests that this will result in an Evening Star bearish reversal candlestick pattern. Assuming 1-4 candle DeMark correction, we might extrapolate a 1-4D bullish trend in BTC.

Nison PB&J (Pullback to Sweetspot) sell target would we at the high between SMMA 6 & EMA 30 (yellow), e.g. $9,000.

9K+ should be the target, where the + is EVRT, high volume, small result (Doji / Shooting Star / tall upper shadow).

I've taken a BTC position here as I feel this Bullish Engulfing pattern has proven itself a legitimate reversal.

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BTCUSDT EVRT should show itself as EVRB on alts, e.g, doji/hammer/long lower shadow. This will be the ideal buy opportunity. From an XRPBTC perspective, this might mean buying between EMA 34/144, <= 3000 target would be ideal. In this event we should see a strong bullish cross 8H of EMA 34/305.

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Wait my bad... this analysis is based on XRPBTC EVRT... so this rally should last 16-32 hours.

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* based on on 8H XRPBTC EVRT... :facepalm.

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BTCUSDT 8H targets between EMA 144 (yellow) & EMA 610 (red), $9300-8650.

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HUGE word of caution is that we are at/moving into Nison PB&J strategy short zone, e.g., sell between SMMA 6 & EMA 30. You can see that we're at resistance. 8950+ should be the attractive place for fomo+distribtion.

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It's the price/volume relationship on 8H which makes me believe that the upward movement will be continued.

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m5 looks really weak. This might be the Daily SMMA 6 holding as resistance. Hmm...if this continues bullish here then I was wrong to sell.

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BTCUSDT 1D: candlestick/volume relationship, Nison PB&J strategy, & TD countdown.

Note: Steve Nison's PB&J strategy, simplified, is to buy/sell between SMMA 10 & EMA 30, depending on trend. I have modified SMMA to 6 periods to better match the BTC market per the daily time frame. We are in a down trend and thus, the PB&J strategy should be used for selling.

- Arrow #1 laid down support at 7710 via a Bullish Engulfing Pattern.

- Arrow #2 reinforced demand at this level via another Bullish Engulfing Pattern, slightly higher in price. This occured on > MA 50 volume average and found resistance at PB&J SMMA 6. This should be viewed as the first attempt to overcome PB&J resistance.

- Arrow #3 represented the second attempt to overcome resistance and developed a Doji, drawing resistance at 8325, below PB&J. This occured on a green TD price flip 1, an indication of the potential start of 1-9 periods of bullish momentum.

- Relative to the high volume candle which closed the Bullish Engulfing pattern at Arrow #2, observe that arrow #3 spent nearly as much volume making almost zero progress. This is a bearish sign.

- In the simplest of terms, a failure of TD to close on a 2, and more significantly, a failure to close above SMMA 6, should be a huge red flag of significant downside to come. The idea of PB&J here would be to trap new longs between the selling sweet spot as they hope for higher prices. A lack of long interest to even enter this range I interpret as a precursor to falling prices.

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Daily, MAs - From Top to Bottom:

PB&J Strategy: SMMA 6 / EMA 30 - short trade on EMA 30, Morning Star high @ 8779.51. Take-away is that Nison's PB&J short strategy works.

Phi EMA 305 (orange)/ 610 (red)/ 1292 (dark red)/ 2584 (darker red).

Next Phi target: 7200.

Demark 4 Setup / 8 Sequential underline more days of downside to come.

Weekly is kind of obvious to the fact that the 9 is going to be massive. Momentum is to the downside. PB&J looks eager to attempt Dead Cross on 9. 5000 TDST near enough to Phi 305 demand line.

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BTCUSDT 1D
Phi EMA 305/610
0.618 = 7300
0.786 = 5475

Phi EMA 305/610/1292/2584

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Steve Nison PB&J (Pullback to Sweetspot) strategy is in short-mode.

zerocashcool

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