BTC will hit 12k by July
Updated
Title kinda says it all. Look at how the price follows the fibs. I think that if the price turns around before it hits 7200 and starts heading north again, it's going to hit 12k by July.
Here's my tiny bit of insight into trading:
No matter how big a fish you are, there's another one, probably even bigger, who will eat you without a moment's hesitation. He knows your patterns and he plays you like a drum.
Another bull run is coming. Another bull run is always coming. Sometimes there's space between them. Sometimes it happens right after a bear run.
Coming to the end of a triangle, like the one bounded by support (lower line) and resistance (upper line), typically means there's a big movement one way or another. Could go up, could go down, probably won't stay where it is.
I think this dip will be followed by another bull run. It could be massive. But at least I think it will go to 12k before July. I say this partly because I'm optimistic about the market, but also because Bitcoin has been on an upward trend overall for more than a year, and a dip below 7200 would break this massively held trend.
But here's what I think of bull runs. Bull runs are always bull traps. If you don't understand the relationship between the fib lines and price action, you're going to miss your sell point every time. Don't be complacent. People are going to sell massively every time the price threatens to pass into a different color on the fib.
I'm hopeful that price won't drop all the way down to 7200. If it does, there will be a bigger sell-off at the first fib line coming off the bounce. If instead price bounces off the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud and doesn't touch 7200, There will be less resistance to pass through the first fib line, and price could shoot up to the second one without such a massive sell-off, bringing price up very close to 12k. If this happens, there absolutely will be a sell-off at or around 12k. Watch for it. Be ready. You can't be a big fish without first learning how to eat and not get eaten.
Don't get eaten. Bull runs are the easiest way to lose your money. And it sucks.
Be the bigger fish.
Here's my tiny bit of insight into trading:
No matter how big a fish you are, there's another one, probably even bigger, who will eat you without a moment's hesitation. He knows your patterns and he plays you like a drum.
Another bull run is coming. Another bull run is always coming. Sometimes there's space between them. Sometimes it happens right after a bear run.
Coming to the end of a triangle, like the one bounded by support (lower line) and resistance (upper line), typically means there's a big movement one way or another. Could go up, could go down, probably won't stay where it is.
I think this dip will be followed by another bull run. It could be massive. But at least I think it will go to 12k before July. I say this partly because I'm optimistic about the market, but also because Bitcoin has been on an upward trend overall for more than a year, and a dip below 7200 would break this massively held trend.
But here's what I think of bull runs. Bull runs are always bull traps. If you don't understand the relationship between the fib lines and price action, you're going to miss your sell point every time. Don't be complacent. People are going to sell massively every time the price threatens to pass into a different color on the fib.
I'm hopeful that price won't drop all the way down to 7200. If it does, there will be a bigger sell-off at the first fib line coming off the bounce. If instead price bounces off the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud and doesn't touch 7200, There will be less resistance to pass through the first fib line, and price could shoot up to the second one without such a massive sell-off, bringing price up very close to 12k. If this happens, there absolutely will be a sell-off at or around 12k. Watch for it. Be ready. You can't be a big fish without first learning how to eat and not get eaten.
Don't get eaten. Bull runs are the easiest way to lose your money. And it sucks.
Be the bigger fish.
Trade active
Well, a lot has happened since I made this prediction. I haven't given up on it yet though. Bitcoin has all but ignored my prediction line, which I sort of expected... Anyone who tells you they can trace the exact future path of BTC price has come here from the future. But the question is whether or not BTC will get to 12K by July. The odds of that really happening have diminished considerably since I made my prediction. But something is about to happen. There's a point where support meets resistance, and BTC is quickly nearing that point. If you turn on BBands, you'll see they're starting to squeeze. Stochastic RSI is beginning an up turn. Bitcoin is about to make a big move out if its current triangular pattern. It has dipped down slightly below where I had drawn my support line, but now it's running back up to the resistance line. If it turns back down from there, we could be looking at a disasterous fall. If instead it proceeds through the resistance line and passes 10k, we could be looking at another glorious bull run. Either way a new pattern will begin to form in just a couple weeks. Volume has dropped to levels consistent with pre-January 2017. But volume is a very tricky indicator, and it's almost guaranteed to go up when this pattern is broken. Whether it will be mostly buy volume or sell volume is another matter. So anyway, while I still have hope for a 12k July, as I said before, the odds are dwindling now since BTC's last dip. If I had to guess, I think we'll have another run at 10k that will fail and drop down below 8k to form a new consolidation pattern. At some point, a big news event will trigger another bull run and the whales will let it run until the price is ridiculous again, then dump it back down again.
Always be skeptical of FUD and FOMO. Just watch the 9-interval RSI on the daily chart. When it gets too high, it will certainly dump. When it gets too low, it will absolutely go back up. Historically, if you've bought when this RSI indicator hit 25 and sold when it hit 77, you've made a profit off every trade, and that's more than most traders can say.
Order cancelled
Well, BTC clearly zigged when it should have zagged. It's broken market structure, and that's where this trade idea pretty much lost steam. Now I'd say it can't possibly hit 12k by July. Sadly I was wrong. BTC will come back eventually, but it's going to take more time than I thought. By mid-November BTC will inevitably break market structure again, and I think this time that break will indicate the beginning of a new bull market or at least a more stable and gradually improving market. It's safe to say that BTC has taken a beating this year. If you're still around from the pre-December prices, you are now almost to the point where you can say you've seen the worst prolonged bear market BTC has ever had. Now is the time to tell your friends about Bitcoin if you haven't already. It's coming closer and closer to a magic number that it simply mustn't cross, and that's the cost of mining. If you're still trading, please manage your risk. Don't stay in a losing trade for too long no matter how many people tell you to hodl. But Bitcoin is not a losing trade right now. Getting in now, the up-side is going to cast a shadow on the down side for sure within the next year or so. Be safe.
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