BTCUSD: Market likely topped with stocks here
Updated
I was considering the action before a long term top, with the action we saw lately in equities and the bubble in altcoins, it is very hard to stay long #Bitcoin here. I don't think it's safe to hold long exposure for the time being, and there is a distinct chance this was a long term top. Buying the dip near 50k was rewarding but it is probably time to bank those gains and move on for some time. This could easily crash towards 43k, where a potential support area lies. Some people have orders around there due to a confluence of technical methods showing it as a buy. If long term trend is up, I'd suppose this area isn't hit, if it is hit, I would find it VERY strange if it bounces after pleasing people.
For the time being I will monitor this closely, but don't want to rush back into crypto until it is clear this breaks up and not down.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
For the time being I will monitor this closely, but don't want to rush back into crypto until it is clear this breaks up and not down.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade closed manually
Either bottomed at support area here, or it forms a continuation signal for more downside next, but better to cover shorts for now. Elon's take was quite dumb, as we all know, and liquidations and sentiment resetting are good, specially if it gets people wanting to buy lower. I'm skeptical of stocks rallying further so I fear this could affect long term upside potential in #BTC, but, Nasdaq hit a support cluster and BTC could bounce, even if bear market rally...Will be vigilant to short again if needed.
Trade active
Weakness once again, and day is not over, long time to go. I think it's probably better to just sit in cash and wait for a clear picture.Note
Adjusted the previous top pattern to today's volatility, if we hit everyone's buy zone at 42k I expect to get continuation down overall. Weekly chart will get clearer over time, for now daily is bearish, and can flash continuation soon.
Note
Trade closed manually
I bot back spot here, waiting for confirmation of either a bottom with alt rotation back to #BTC, or a bear market if we break lower soon.Trade active
Best to wait in cash, this is failing to rebound strongly, intraday weakness observed here, likely the bearish trend is still in control. Alts also look terrible.
Trade closed: target reached
For this trade the target was hit, I'm in cash, and would suggest to wait for consolidation to reshort if shorting it. I'm short some alts.Trade active
Bear market scenario is still highly likely, just hard to short BTC due to people constantly buying all dips even if lower.Note
People buy the 200d EMA, even though since inception of
BLX data it has a 66.67% chance of predicting the start of a massive bear market run...Trade closed: target reached
'People buy the 200d EMA, even though since inception of BLX data it has a 66.67% chance of predicting the start of a massive bear market run...'Make that 70% chance since Bitcoin's inception...
Bear market scenario target zone hit, and ahead of time. This confirms a pattern like the 1987 stock market crash took place. It took a long time to base and recover from that crash but it was a lasting bottom from there onwards. Not sure it will be the same here, but interesting to determine what happens after. Either way, we likely will have time to discard this doesn't go lower, without having to buy higher, since people expect a V shaped recovery and basically everyone on Earth who could bought the dip again.
Note
We can get some variation of this: a very frustrating decline not sharp enough and with enough pullbacks from dip buyers doing DCA on the way down and never giving up until it hits rock bottom over a long time.Note
The trade was perfect, shame I didn't post a bottom picking signal, things are a bit trickier than previous market cycles, but still mostly tradeable.
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