BTC, When should we expect reversal?
Updated
FA: The majority of crypto market participants are currently in a depressed mood regarding the medium-term future of the crypto market as a whole. Such behavior of the crowd says first of all that weak hands are not ready to buy now, and the sawtooth movement, which started since March and has lasted for more than 6 months, puts even experienced participants in a stupor, forcing them to close speculative positions, dump risky assets and expect a further decline comparable to the collapse in the spring of 2020.
However, a deeper look reveals several significant trends:
A drop in the influx of new bitcoins to exchanges.
Since the beginning of the year, the number of new coins entering exchanges has been declining. This indicates that professional investors prefer to keep their assets in their wallets, which means they are not preparing to sell. This factor is traditionally considered to be a bullish sign, as a decrease in supply on exchanges may contribute to price growth in case of renewed buying activity.
Increased outflow of bitcoins from exchanges.
This sign is also positive and confirms the narrative of asset accumulation by smart capital. It can be seen especially well at the moment of price drawdown: during and after aggressive shakeouts, a surge in coin outflows is clearly visible.
Despite the globally passive sentiment, the fundamentals of exchange inflow/outflow suggest that strong hands continue to accumulate while the crowd is perplexed by what is happening.
Reduced supply on the exchanges and increased demand from large holdings are creating all the conditions for future price gains, our idea is that the market has been in a reaccumulative phase for the past six months.
From a technical analysis standpoint, I anticipate a continued downside for BTC. Two potential scenarios may unfold:
1 - Retest of the 4-hour Order Block (OB): BTC could test the 52,000-54,000 range, followed by a gradual reversal, suggesting a more measured recovery.
2 - Retest of the Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG): Alternatively, BTC may drop to the 47,300-44,000 zone, which could trigger a sharp "V-shaped" reversal with aggressive momentum driving the price higher, potentially towards new all-time highs (ATH).
In either case, monitoring key support and resistance levels within these zones will be critical.
However, a deeper look reveals several significant trends:
A drop in the influx of new bitcoins to exchanges.
Since the beginning of the year, the number of new coins entering exchanges has been declining. This indicates that professional investors prefer to keep their assets in their wallets, which means they are not preparing to sell. This factor is traditionally considered to be a bullish sign, as a decrease in supply on exchanges may contribute to price growth in case of renewed buying activity.
Increased outflow of bitcoins from exchanges.
This sign is also positive and confirms the narrative of asset accumulation by smart capital. It can be seen especially well at the moment of price drawdown: during and after aggressive shakeouts, a surge in coin outflows is clearly visible.
Despite the globally passive sentiment, the fundamentals of exchange inflow/outflow suggest that strong hands continue to accumulate while the crowd is perplexed by what is happening.
Reduced supply on the exchanges and increased demand from large holdings are creating all the conditions for future price gains, our idea is that the market has been in a reaccumulative phase for the past six months.
From a technical analysis standpoint, I anticipate a continued downside for BTC. Two potential scenarios may unfold:
1 - Retest of the 4-hour Order Block (OB): BTC could test the 52,000-54,000 range, followed by a gradual reversal, suggesting a more measured recovery.
2 - Retest of the Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG): Alternatively, BTC may drop to the 47,300-44,000 zone, which could trigger a sharp "V-shaped" reversal with aggressive momentum driving the price higher, potentially towards new all-time highs (ATH).
In either case, monitoring key support and resistance levels within these zones will be critical.
Trade active
After reversal at 52500, price went up. Dont expect anyfurther moves downwards, first target 61k then 65 and then ATH 
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