Bitcoin’s Wild Swings & Key Setups in Forex & Gold (#6)
Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster over the past few days, and I’m sure many of you have had your stop losses hit. Let’s break down the reasons behind this volatility and what’s next.
📊 BTC – Expanding Triangle = High Volatility
BTC was set to confirm an uptrend after breaking above $98,500, but then came the Bybit hack.
📌 What Happened?
🔻 On February 21, 2025, hackers stole $1.5 billion from Bybit’s Ethereum cold wallet.
🔻 Attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, this triggered a market-wide sell-off.
🔻 BTC dropped, then settled into an expanding triangle.
📉 What’s important about this pattern?
Support & resistance levels lose significance.
Win rate drops, and volatility increases.
High probability of stop hunts & fakeouts.
🚨 My approach?
No trades inside the triangle.
Long above $97,987 (4H) or after first confirmed higher high & low.
Short below 95K (key support in 4H).
📊 DXY – Still in a Downtrend
DXY continues its price correction, as we anticipated in previous breakdowns.
📌 Bias: Still bearish in the short term unless we reclaim 107.391.
📉 Until then, I remain focused on setups favoring a weaker USD.
🟡 Gold (XAU/USD) – Strong Trend, but Watch for Weakness
Gold remains firmly in an uptrend, but some exhaustion signs are emerging.
📌 Trade Setup:
✅ Long Trigger (4H): Above 2945
❌ Stop Loss: Below 2916.42
📌 Key Reminder:
🔹 A trader’s mindset must be separate from an analyst’s mindset.
🔹 Follow your strategy, take trades, and accept stop losses without emotional bias.
🔹 I’ll be posting an in-depth article on this today.
📈 EUR/USD – Setting Up for a Major Trend Shift?
📌 Daily Timeframe:
EUR/USD has been in a strong downtrend but is now in a correction phase.
A shift in trend is possible if we get a daily close above 1.05217.
📌 4H Trade Setup:
✅ Long Entry: Above 1.05198
❌ Stop Loss: Below 1.04483
Final Thoughts
⚠ BTC is in a highly volatile phase – trade with caution.
⚠ DXY weakness favors long setups in EUR/USD and gold.
⚠ If you’re not using risk management, these setups may not be suitable for you.
⚠ Separate your trader mindset from your analyst mindset
I’m Skeptic—trade smart, stay profitable. See you tomorrow.
📊 BTC – Expanding Triangle = High Volatility
BTC was set to confirm an uptrend after breaking above $98,500, but then came the Bybit hack.
📌 What Happened?
🔻 On February 21, 2025, hackers stole $1.5 billion from Bybit’s Ethereum cold wallet.
🔻 Attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, this triggered a market-wide sell-off.
🔻 BTC dropped, then settled into an expanding triangle.
📉 What’s important about this pattern?
Support & resistance levels lose significance.
Win rate drops, and volatility increases.
High probability of stop hunts & fakeouts.
🚨 My approach?
No trades inside the triangle.
Long above $97,987 (4H) or after first confirmed higher high & low.
Short below 95K (key support in 4H).
📊 DXY – Still in a Downtrend
DXY continues its price correction, as we anticipated in previous breakdowns.
📌 Bias: Still bearish in the short term unless we reclaim 107.391.
📉 Until then, I remain focused on setups favoring a weaker USD.
🟡 Gold (XAU/USD) – Strong Trend, but Watch for Weakness
Gold remains firmly in an uptrend, but some exhaustion signs are emerging.
📌 Trade Setup:
✅ Long Trigger (4H): Above 2945
❌ Stop Loss: Below 2916.42
📌 Key Reminder:
🔹 A trader’s mindset must be separate from an analyst’s mindset.
🔹 Follow your strategy, take trades, and accept stop losses without emotional bias.
🔹 I’ll be posting an in-depth article on this today.
📈 EUR/USD – Setting Up for a Major Trend Shift?
📌 Daily Timeframe:
EUR/USD has been in a strong downtrend but is now in a correction phase.
A shift in trend is possible if we get a daily close above 1.05217.
📌 4H Trade Setup:
✅ Long Entry: Above 1.05198
❌ Stop Loss: Below 1.04483
Final Thoughts
⚠ BTC is in a highly volatile phase – trade with caution.
⚠ DXY weakness favors long setups in EUR/USD and gold.
⚠ If you’re not using risk management, these setups may not be suitable for you.
⚠ Separate your trader mindset from your analyst mindset
I’m Skeptic—trade smart, stay profitable. See you tomorrow.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.