Will BTC Break Its Consolidation Range This Week?
Updated
Over the past few weeks, BTC has consolidated around the $19,246 level, which is the Fibonacci level of interest discussed in a number of recent posts in the past couple of weeks. See the links embedded in the Primary Chart above.
BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level. See the intraday Supplementary Chart below for an overview of the past two weeks of price action with some of the prominent failed breakouts highlighted with circles.
Supplementary Chart: Key Fibonacci Level at $19,246 with Multiple False Breakouts in Both Directions
The failed breakouts in both directions have likely been a source of frustration for bulls and bears alike. Each move has been essentially a trap move that failed to follow through, with a sharp reversal to the opposite side of the $19,246. As pressure mounts on major equity indices like the S&P 500 (
SPX) and NDX 100 (
NDX / 
QQQ), with many of them undercutting June 2022 lows, BTC is like to follow suit in short order. This does not negate the possibility of BTC yielding a sharp OS bounce in the coming week or two after a trend move lower.
One argument for the bulls is that BTC's sideways chop action has resulted in its relative strength becoming quite impressive. Equity indices have been plummeting sharply since mid-August 2022 with little reprieve. But BTC during this time has largely chopped sideways after losing a few key levels in late August and early September 2022.
BTCUSDT
BTCUSD
BTCUSD
BTCUSDT
BTCUSD
BTC1!
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Author's Comments:
(1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view.
(2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades.
(3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
(4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level. See the intraday Supplementary Chart below for an overview of the past two weeks of price action with some of the prominent failed breakouts highlighted with circles.
Supplementary Chart: Key Fibonacci Level at $19,246 with Multiple False Breakouts in Both Directions
The failed breakouts in both directions have likely been a source of frustration for bulls and bears alike. Each move has been essentially a trap move that failed to follow through, with a sharp reversal to the opposite side of the $19,246. As pressure mounts on major equity indices like the S&P 500 (
SPX) and NDX 100 (NDX / QQQ), with many of them undercutting June 2022 lows, BTC is like to follow suit in short order. This does not negate the possibility of BTC yielding a sharp OS bounce in the coming week or two after a trend move lower.One argument for the bulls is that BTC's sideways chop action has resulted in its relative strength becoming quite impressive. Equity indices have been plummeting sharply since mid-August 2022 with little reprieve. But BTC during this time has largely chopped sideways after losing a few key levels in late August and early September 2022.
BTCUSDTBTCUSDBTCUSDBTCUSDTBTCUSDBTC1!________________________________________
Author's Comments:
(1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view.
(2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades.
(3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
(4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Note
BTC has still not broken out of the consolidation range identified in this post two weeks ago on October 2, 2022. This consolidation range has now been in effect for an entire month! The first paragraph of the original post above has been copied below as it still applies today, strangely. This consolidation has no doubt frustrated anyone with a directional bias in BTC:
"Over the past few weeks, BTC has consolidated around the $19,246 level, which is the Fibonacci level of interest discussed in a number of recent posts in the past couple of weeks. See the links embedded in the Primary Chart above.
BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level. "
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