Pre-Halving ATH | Post-Halving Collapse
Updated
Why? Well there's a simple answer, Bitcoin does not do what you expect.
No cycle is the same, the popular sentiment is always in the wrong. For instance, in the previous cycle when Bitcoin bounced from 3-4k all the way to 13k, the entire market was hinged on the idea that the uptrend was in full swing, and that every consolidation is a buy and we were printing a bull-flag. Little did they expect, Covid dropped the price right back to the 4k region, though even without Covid that was still in the cards, because Bitcoin does not behave.
So here's the idea, this is the first cycle where the market sentiment is that pre-halving is accumulation, and post-halving is when everything goes parabolic. But what if I told you that the parabolic phase would happen in the next few months leading up to the halving, and that the halving would result in a year long consolidation to the downside bleeding out all the money that was thrown into the expectations of a "bull run"?
Either that, or we get something just as bizarre, but I'm feeling we get the biggest psychological boom with this play, and the post-halving bleedout would result in a long and slowly drawn out uptrend which would not be in the cards for anybody. I believe we're in the phase of the market where we replicate what Apple/Microsoft/Etc did in the early 2000s, where we form an uptrend that is less parabolic and filled with longer corrections.
No cycle is the same, the popular sentiment is always in the wrong. For instance, in the previous cycle when Bitcoin bounced from 3-4k all the way to 13k, the entire market was hinged on the idea that the uptrend was in full swing, and that every consolidation is a buy and we were printing a bull-flag. Little did they expect, Covid dropped the price right back to the 4k region, though even without Covid that was still in the cards, because Bitcoin does not behave.
So here's the idea, this is the first cycle where the market sentiment is that pre-halving is accumulation, and post-halving is when everything goes parabolic. But what if I told you that the parabolic phase would happen in the next few months leading up to the halving, and that the halving would result in a year long consolidation to the downside bleeding out all the money that was thrown into the expectations of a "bull run"?
Either that, or we get something just as bizarre, but I'm feeling we get the biggest psychological boom with this play, and the post-halving bleedout would result in a long and slowly drawn out uptrend which would not be in the cards for anybody. I believe we're in the phase of the market where we replicate what Apple/Microsoft/Etc did in the early 2000s, where we form an uptrend that is less parabolic and filled with longer corrections.
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Look at the price using my yellow line as weekly support, you can't make this up! Okay, back to reality, let's talk about what will happen now that the price is on the move. Why is 30-31k Bitcoin in the near term not possible, why is there no re-test? Here's the answer, if Bitcoin comes back to support for a retest, it would be bearish. In fact, if we do come for a retest, I fully expect the price to breakdown and we continue on with a major bear market... and this is why my stance right now is that we go up straight to 60k first, before we come back for that MENTAL damage.Note
Just use my mumbo of a yellow line as support, easy dub.Note
Yall never seen a yellow line so stronk, on G.HINT: Tezos to $5
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Previous close was right above Ichimoku cloud, reason for this pump. Let's get that yellow line in the BREAD.Note
Wowzers oh my goober of the floobers, where the haters at? They awfully silent huh?Note
Just a heads up, we're close to the TOP now, I'm expecting a lot of volatile up and downs for a bit, but we'll most likely see the price hover around 55-70k for the next few weeks, consolidating sideways with a few abrupt wicks (down/up). This is NOT the time to buy btw, it's the time to SELL for your 2x profits, but keep a 20% position size just incase, you never know if you can get a sell at the premium of 72k hahahNote
Market is creeping up, remember folks, look at my yellow line and use that as a guide. New week just started and we're slowly crawling upwards, what does that mean? It means we're in for mid-week reversal around the highs, once we reach around 70-72k the market will dump like no tomorrow, you won't even have a chance to sell if you wanted to. Just a fair warning, Euphoria is in full swing atm.Note
Would you look at that, a 15% drop in 2hrs, my magical line of magic still seems to be putting in work, how wonderful!So what do? Simple, the range is 55k-70k, the price will hover within this region for some time, so the lower end is a buy and higher end is a sell, it's really that easy. You're essentially trading within the range until Bitcoin is ready for another big move, which probably won't happen anytime soon.
Trade closed: target reached
Well well well, just came back from vacation and what do you know, the price hits 73k and gets rejected back into the <70k region. We've now reached our target area of 72k and the price is definitely showing weakness, which means our thesis is still intact and we will likely see the price continue to fluctuate between 55-70k, and then we may see some form of capitulation mid-summer to zap out all the longs.Note
Just an update, my prior thesis is that we top out around 72k and then range between 55-70k, but the price has been hovering in the higher range between 64-72k instead, which is generally a sign of strength. If we continue to stay in the area of 70k, then it's possible we may see a breakout upwards to make a new ATH... but I wouldn't hold my hands up yet, because it's also very possible we get a pump up just to get rejected and drop right below 70k again.So what's the plan? Simple, just wait it out, because the move from 35k to 72k was already a good trade, and it's better to sit on profits than to throw it all back. I'd say it's safe to maybe sit on like a 20% position size, and then just waiting out the rest of this month to see what happens, because I'm not feeling a BTC move tbh, but if we're still here in may, then we may see something happen.
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Would you look at that, looks like the price wants to follow my yellow line like a magnet. The sentiment was so bullish just a few days ago and now everyone is begging the market to stop bleeding, well if they looked at the macro picture, they'd notice that Bitcoin was overbought, and that would lead to the entire market flopping over.Note
It's almost May and the price is just hovering above my yellow line, consolidating sideways.. it's almost like I said this would happen, wow! Feel free to ask any questions below and I might answer, but for now, just relax and don't be hasty when the price isn't giving you a sure sign.Note
Lower range 55k / Upper range 70k - simple. easy. do what you will with that info.Note
Alright, I think it's time for another bi-weekly update as we've reached the highs of 70k etc again. Let's keep it straight to the point, we have to keep in mind that we're currently in a range, between 55k-72k, until we break above with high conviction, it's unlikely we escape this range. This has been the range I set for Bitcoin over a year ago, so far it's following it, so until it starts neglecting our thesis, we should remain humble and let the price move according to our plan.So what does that mean, it means 55k is a buy and 72k is a sell (aka lower end is a buy and higher end is a sell), you can make your own judgement on the exact levels, but always keep a portion of your portfolio in the trade. I don't expect any major or exciting moves coming from Bitcoin until either late summer or post summer, so right now it's very much just a waiting game with a few small trades between the ranges.
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Hello folks, it's time for a new update, but this time, I'm brining in some macro analysis and a deep dive into the structure of Bitcoin.Remember when I said nothing will happen until Summer/Mid-summer? Well, looks like that came to be true, Bitcoin did absolutely nothing and Altcoins bled for days.
Here's the thing, after observing Bitcoin's movements the past few months, I'm beginning to notice a few intricate details. Firstly, I'm changing my idea of the post-summer capitulation, into a possible post-summer rally! Why? Because of a few things, Alts have been bleeding and we did not have a considerable Alt season, Bitcoin is holding higher levels than expected, and lastly the consolidation has been long and uneventful (usually a bullish sign).
So what do I think will happen now? Simple, Bitcoin will consolidate sideways for a bit, and we see some Alts rally first (particularly the older Alts), and then after that, we may see Bitcoin breakout upwards around the end of summer, and around the end of this year we'll get the biggest moves to the upside from retail. That's about it.
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Would you look at that, we touched the bottom of the range again. Easiest trade setup in Crypto history, you just gotta do what the chart tells you and it's easy dubs.Note
Living below the YELLO LINE? Not liek DISSSS, Jk guys, the chart looks fine, time to BE BE YOU EYE !!Note
War news again... nothing new it seems these days. Honestly though, Bitcoin hasn't really fallen off from my expectations. I did expect a post-summer dumpster fire, but I was thinking more of around Sep, but since we got a pretty decent flash crash already, this may all be over for the time being... might even see some sideways movements for the next few weeks.Note
Welcome Welcome! Monthly update here, I'll just tell you this, the bottom is in, now is the time to buy, to accumulate, to BAG up whatever you desire because from here on out you won't see these cheap prices on Bitcoin or Altcoins for a long long time, trust.Note
LADS LADS LADS, THE PUMP IS NOW. BE WITH OR BE WITHOUT, ALT SEASON.
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