Bitcoin BTC price is preparing for a “crazy” September

Updated

If we compare the stock market drops at August 05 and September 03, we can say that the crypto market is still holding up very well.
But we shouldn't relax, because there are a lot of events coming up in September that will set the tone for the Autumn:
1️⃣ September 6 - data from the labor market. July 5 and August 5 were extremely volatile downward after the data release. Now the market interprets and considers the most important indicator of the health of the US economy to be not inflation but the number of jobs created. Based on this data, on August 5, the market plunged into a not so pleasant weekend when went below 50K.
2️⃣11 September - publication of the CPI and inflation data in the United States.
3️⃣18 September - the results of the two-day Fed meeting, the announcement of a rate cut. It's elegant that this day is also a full moon, conspiracy theorists are on the base)
4️⃣20 September - a hat trick - a day when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day. This happens only four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, which can lead to a sharp increase in trading volume and volatility.
🍿 Preparing popcorn and soothing valerian)

And if you look closely, you can see how beautifully BTCUSDT price moves through white dynamic fibo channels, from border to border.

So use this information to your advantage, with profit!)

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😱 So, this day has come, today, 06.09, the “marathon of publications of important macroeconomic data” of the United States opens.
In 5 hours, at 12.30 UTC, data on the US labor market will be published. The importance of this data was described higher
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index is at 22. This is already the zone of “extreme fear,” but there is still a little more to go to the 8-10 mark, from where the market turns around in the most critical situations.

So be careful, "put buckets" on the possible fall, use stop orders in trading and be careful with shorts, because the price will not fall below 0, and growth is possible from above to infinity)

What are your expectations for the next 3 days?
Growth 🔼 or fall 🔽

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🇺🇸Non-farm payrolls:
▫️142K (forecast 160K, previous value 89K)
🇺🇸Unemployment rate:
▫️4.2% (forecast 4.2%, previous value 4.3%)
The macro data came out as expected neutral. And they put the Fed, led by Powell, in a very uncomfortable “pose”)
Because now any actions by Powell on September 18 will be perceived as insufficient:
- we are cutting the rate by 0.25% - this is not enough!
- we cut the rate by 0.50% - everything is gone, a recession, how could you let this happen.
Statistics now: 60% for a 0.25% cut and 40% for a 0.50% cut

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Recently, there was news that, according to analysts , if Trump wins the election, the price of will soar to 90k, if Harris wins, it may fall to 30k.
And so, last night, the Trump/Harris debate took place, and even the “pro-Republican” FOX channel admitted that Harris was stronger.

Some might say that this was the reason for the correction of the #BTCUSDT price. However, if you look at the chart, you will see that the #BTCUSD price simply failed to gain a foothold above the important $57750 level at the first attempt.

Today, in an hour, the US CPI is due out. The preliminary value is 2.9%, the forecast is for a decline to 2.6%, although there are opinions that it will be even lower than 2.5%.
This may be another positive “bell” for the Fed to cut the rate next week on September 18.

So, we expect increased volatility, a possible downward push to shake out of longs, and no large leverage.
But maybe today we will get some great "points" for longs.

Note

US CPI is 2.5%, which is good, very good for crypto

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A crucial week has begun for all financial markets.
+ 18.09 (Wednesday) announcement of the new Fed Funds rate. The forecast is for a decrease of 0.25%, but it could be as low as -0.5%.
+ 20.09 (Friday) - expiration on many financial instruments
We described it in more detail at this idea early.
So the week will be very nervous and volatile.
In your opinion, what kind of price movement will we see this week?
🔼fixation above 60k and movement to
🔽drop to 53k, and maybe even lower

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Today at 18:00(UTC) Fed rate announcement
The forecast is for a decrease:
👉64% -0.50%
👉36% -0.25%
It seems that the price has been celebrating and reacting to the positive news since yesterday.

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The Fed cut the rate by 0.5%. Now it is 5%.
September 18, 2024 - the beginning of the Fed's rate cuts since the spring of 2022.

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