Short

BTC correction might be here

Updated

A BTC correction has been expected for some weeks. If this is it, then we may have a period of price dropping for BTC until we can reach one of the fib retracement levels. It is entirely possible that this correction may go deeper, as the last correction didn't go as deep as I thought it might need to. I feel it's more likely that we will hit the .618 fib and if it breaks this level, then we will most likely see the .786 fib retracement level. 3350 (.5) and 3000 (.618) are the first targets that I would set as potential buy-in points. If the correction is strong, I would watch the .618 fib closely, as if it breaks, there isn't support until near the .786 fib, so the drop may continue very strongly down to near 2500-2600 levels.

Note

We have hit the first fib of the last rise (.382). Given the volume and momentum of this latest move, I think it is likely to move to the next fib (.5) in the next few days. The .5 fib is a major monthly support and will likely hold, but if it breaks, we could be dropping for a deep drop towards the 2500-2600 level.

Note

BTC literally blew straight through the .382 fib, and only stopped momentarily. Watch the .5 fib closely as momentum is accelerating to the downside. A strong break of the monthly fib might see us pushing quickly towards $2500-$2600 level, which might see us touch as deep as $2300. If that happened, I would put the rest of my portfolio into BTC as this is a heavily oversold condition. Do NOT use leverage in corrections such as this as you're asking to be liquidated. The market is moving far too fast for leverage and we need to find the bottom of this correction.

Note

Here's an update on where we are. BTC price is approaching the monthly pivot at the .618 fib from the last rise up. Watch this level closely as it should hold, but if it doesn't, we have a long drop to the old support.

Trade closed: target reached

Shorts are closed and I have 2/6 bids filled at the $3000 level. I have 4 more bids waiting below $3000 from $2900 down to $2600.

Note

Perfect hit on the .618 fib at $3000. This is strong support, but there is a chance we will revisit this, so patience here is key to possibly filling your remaining positions. Watching the trend over the next couple of days.

Note

BTC is currently pushing towards 4K. If we break this level, this will be our first confirmation for a reversal. If this breaks and then $4200, it will be time to begin buying the dips as it will likely continue upward. If we still cannot break in the coming days, then we are very likely to see another drop towards 3K.

Note

BTC has broken the level, but it needs to hold this level to continue our rise up. Monitor this closely to see if we will break and hold otherwise we may revisit the bottom again.

Note

First sign of reversal tonight as BTC breaks above the pivot at 4050. If it can hold above the 4050 level, I will begin buying the dips on BTC with my remaining position while watching for a break of 4200.

Prothius187

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