The bullish scenario is to break 24.75k with strong volume to remove the above sell orders confidently and hold for the daily close - it will strongly confirm a push up to 27K since there is very little resistance on the way along with a bullish CME gap target and top of the macro range.
The Beraish scenario here is losing 24.2k again will push it down likely further to 23.5k where there should be some support there is a chance it can form an inverse head and shoulders pattern here and bounce quite nicely but short therm there could be blood to take out a lot of leveraged longs.
Bullish Factors: + Little overhead resistance + Broken Key Resistance with strong support + MFI is positive + Above all key EMA's + Above 20 & 50 DEMA + $250 billion inflows crypto market cap in last 30 days + ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment + Positive CPI Data + Transfer Volume turned positive + Funding Rates turned positive + Taker Buy Sell Ratio turned positive + Liquidations turned positive
Bearish Factors: - SEC is still on a rampage - RSI Pullback Signal - Bearish RSI & Wave Divergence - At Local Resistance - Wave Reversal - RSI and Wave Overbought - Volume slowing down - Large Sell Orders - Trendline Resistance - Exchange Reserve turned negative - aSOPR turned negative
Key News:
+ ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment market wide - U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash. + CPI Announcement - 8.5% - sub 8.7% was deemed bullish - SEC Subpoenaed Coinbase + $250 billion inflows crypto market cap in last 30 days
Metrics:
Exchange - Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to rise, it indicates higher selling pressure. - Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
Miners / Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. / Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
On-Chain - aSOPR - More investors are selling at a profit. In the middle of a bull market, it can indicate a market top. + Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins + Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses. + Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 5.00% compared to yesterday. + Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 40.00% compared to yesterday. + Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 55.00% compared to yesterday.
Sentiment + Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase. - Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong. - Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
Derivatives + Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders. + Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Buying sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More buy orders are filled by takers. / Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend. + Liquidation - 101609383.99 of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
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