19/08/24 Weekly outlook
Last weeks high: $61,782.68
Last weeks low: $56,107.68
Midpoint: 58,945.18
Apologies for the late WEEKLY OUTLOOK, let's go over last weeks PA.
A much tighter spread between weekly high and low last week compared to the week before. As BTC continues its recovery from the JPY carry trade dump we are back @ 4H 200EMA for the 5th time since losing support during the dump. For me this follows the same pattern as has been happening all year, flip the 4H 200EMA and aim for the '21 ATH @ $69,000. What happens at that level is nearly always disappointing but with rate cuts coming next month, maybe that will finally change.
From the weekly range chart I do see the midpoint being important for the rest of the week, the recent 1h surge has come from the Midpoint level, flipped the 0.75 and now targeting range high which would put BTC over the 4H 200EMA point. The FOMC minutes takes place on Wednesday of this week and may provide some volatility, however the general consensus is that a rate hike is coming next month, the real question is will it be 25 Basis Points or 50bps.
For this week it's more of the same in terms of being patient and trying not to get caught up in the chop. With the general sentiment being that the Bullrun will continue soon it's tricky to find the right entry at this stage if you haven't already. Patience is key.
Last weeks low: $56,107.68
Midpoint: 58,945.18
Apologies for the late WEEKLY OUTLOOK, let's go over last weeks PA.
A much tighter spread between weekly high and low last week compared to the week before. As BTC continues its recovery from the JPY carry trade dump we are back @ 4H 200EMA for the 5th time since losing support during the dump. For me this follows the same pattern as has been happening all year, flip the 4H 200EMA and aim for the '21 ATH @ $69,000. What happens at that level is nearly always disappointing but with rate cuts coming next month, maybe that will finally change.
From the weekly range chart I do see the midpoint being important for the rest of the week, the recent 1h surge has come from the Midpoint level, flipped the 0.75 and now targeting range high which would put BTC over the 4H 200EMA point. The FOMC minutes takes place on Wednesday of this week and may provide some volatility, however the general consensus is that a rate hike is coming next month, the real question is will it be 25 Basis Points or 50bps.
For this week it's more of the same in terms of being patient and trying not to get caught up in the chop. With the general sentiment being that the Bullrun will continue soon it's tricky to find the right entry at this stage if you haven't already. Patience is key.
Note
Surprise surprise... BTC rejecting off the 4H 200EMA for the 5th time in a row...
FOMC minutes takes place in less than 10 hours, we may get some rate cut clues then but for now there isn't much to do.
Note
6th tap of the 4H 200EMA
The MA is basically flat now, this is Bitcoins chance to flip it.
Note
Rejection off the weekly high but an important break through the 4H 200EMA.
LTF structure of higher highs and lower lows suggesting a bullish trend channel.
Can't hang around the 4H 200EMA for too long as accumulation just above a key area can lead to the structure breaking down.
Note
Can BTC finish the week strong after flipping the 4H 200EMA??
Breaking out above weekly range high after repetitive higher lows building up to the high.
HTF trend resistance is @ $66,000
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