Entering the volatility period
Updated
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If USDT and USDC continue their gap uptrend, I think it is a sign that funds are flowing into the coin market.
I think that for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and be maintained or continue to fall.
Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after receiving resistance near the M-Signal indicator or Fibonacci ratio 0.5 (57.95) on the 1W chart.
The decline in USDT dominance is likely to result in a rise in the coin market.
The USDT dominance is expected to touch around 2.84 at the most.
Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after receiving resistance near 3.99-4.16.
If the USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to show a sharp decline.
Therefore, if it is maintained above 4.97, I think the coin market is likely to turn into a downtrend.
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
If BTC continues to rise like this, I also hope so.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is maintained at 100 and the StochRSI EMA indicator is approaching 100, BTC will eventually show a downward trend.
Therefore, even if it continues to rise further, it will touch the Fibonacci ratio 2 (106178.85) and show a downward trend.
The StochRSI indicator does not tell us how much the fluctuation will occur.
If it starts to decline,
1st: 87.8K-89K
2nd: 79.9K-80.9K
There is a possibility that it will touch the 1st and 2nd areas above.
If not, and it shows a sideways pattern, it seems that volatility is likely to occur when touching the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
The volatility period on the 1W chart is around the week including December 23rd.
Therefore, it can be seen that the volatility period is from December 16th to January 5th.
If the BW(100) indicator or the HA-High indicator is newly created during the volatility period, it is important to see if it can be supported near it.
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(1D chart)
I will update after a new candle is created.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Note
#BTCUSDT.P
The point to watch is how the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart can be initialized.
Since the StochRSI EMA indicator has never touched the 100 point, the pressure for the decline will increase as the StochRSI EMA approaches the 100 point.
If it starts to decline, it is expected to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
The next upside target is 2.618 (133889.92).
Note
We can see that funds are flowing into the coin market because USDC showed a gap increase.
The point to watch is whether BTC dominance can meet resistance and fall around 0.5 (57.95) ~ 0.236 (58.58).
Since the rise in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated toward BTC, it can be interpreted that altcoins are likely to move sideways or show a downward trend.
The decline in USDT dominance means that the coin market is likely to show an upward trend.
However, since it represents the overall trend of the coin market, it mostly appears in the opposite direction to the movement of BTC.
Therefore, for the altcoin bull market to begin, BTC dominance must fall and USDT dominance must fall.
Therefore, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and be maintained or continue to fall.
USDT dominance is expected to fall to around 2.84 at the most.
After that, USDT dominance is expected to rise and the coin market is likely to fall.
If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, it is highly likely that the coin market will begin a full-scale decline.
Note
#BTCUSD (TradingView Index Chart)
The value of StochRSI EMA has not yet touched the 100 point.
Therefore, I think that the closer StochRSI EMA gets to the 100 point, the more pressure there is for a decline.
When the StochRSI indicator in May 2019 was maintained at the 100 point, the value of StochRSI EMA and the decline in price are shown.
The current value of StochRSI EMA is located around 96.70, so it seems that there is still a possibility of further increase.
Looking at the decline, it seems to have been around -20% to -30%.
Therefore, if it declines from the current high point (107.766.45), it is expected that it will likely fall to around 88.1K-75.5K.
Note
#BTCUSDT
I don't say it often, but the next volatility period is around December 27th.
Note
#NAS100USD
Note
#ADAUSDT
The StochRSI indicator is showing signs of starting to reset.
That is, it means that it is falling from the overbought area, and StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, leading to a movement to fall below the 50 point.
If it falls below the important support and resistance area, it is possible to meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart or the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
At this time, if the HA-High or HA-Low indicator shows signs of being newly created or touches, it is important to check whether there is support near that area.
#SOLUSDT
SOL has more initialization of the StochRSI indicator than the ADAUSDT chart.
Since it touched the HA-High indicator point of 222.61, it is important to check whether there is support around this point.
If it falls below 222.61, it will meet the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart or the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart.
The HA-High indicator (147.74) of the 1M chart ~ the BW (100) indicator (171.71) of the 1M chart are important support areas.
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If the StochRSI indicator falls in the overbought area and changes to a state where StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, the price will eventually show a downward trend.
However, since the range of fluctuations cannot be known through the movement of the StochRSI indicator, you should consider a response strategy based on whether there is support at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
#BTCUSDT
This is what BTC will do going forward.
#BTCUSDT #Bitcoin #BTC #Korean
Check out the updated content.
If altcoins reset their StochRSI indicators before BTC starts to decline, if BTC stops falling and starts to move sideways or go up, altcoins are expected to see a sharp rise.
Note
If you are concerned about the loss that appears as the coins (tokens) you hold decline, you must sell some of them to stabilize your psychological state.
If not, you should be careful because your psychological state may become very unstable and you may suddenly do something strange.
The coin market is expected to maintain an upward trend until the end of 2025, so you should consider a trading strategy such as lowering the average purchase price by adjusting the investment ratio or increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.
Trade active
#BTCUSDT
The HA-High indicator is showing signs of being newly created from the 97821.58 point to the 101947.24 point.
Accordingly, if the HA-High indicator is created at the 101947.24 point, whether there is support near that point is an important issue.
Therefore, the key is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratio 1.902 (101784.54) and the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
If not, and it falls below 95904.28-98892.0, it will eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
Before that, you should check if there is support near 87.8K-89K or if the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is newly created.
If the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is created, it is important to check if there is support near it.
The HA-Low indicator is currently located at 56204.13, so it is highly likely that it will be newly created.
If the HA-Low indicator is newly created, it will be the trigger to close the current upward wave and create a wave again.
The decline eventually begins when the HA-HIgh indicator is created and resistance is confirmed near it.
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