Short

BTC may decrease 2021-07 to 2021-09-19, then increase in 2021-10

Updated

Based off of 2021-07 data, BTC may decrease from 2021-07 to 2021-09-19, then increase in 2021-10. Followed by a possible decrease from 2021-09-15 to 2021-12-19. Perhaps after more data is available, there may be an increase around 2022-01 to 2022-06.

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CORRECTION: a possible decrease from 2021-11-15 to 2021-12-19

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The 2021-07-13 data is now reflecting a possible decline during 2021-10 as well. So from 2021-07 to 2021-12-19 there may be a steady decline pattern. It's possible that it might trend as relatively flat during 2021-10.

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My additional idea would be if or when we get struck by deflation (global), then perhaps we could see a further decline. It's possible that there may be a bottom closer toward 2021-10 through 2022-04. For example, the 2018 decline lasted 12 months; however things are different this time. So there is a chance that we may see 6 to 12 months of decline with short-term increases and flat sections. If deflation sets in around 2022-03 (even for 20 days), we could see something like the 2020-03 short-term drop and correction back up. However, this idea / trend that I am referring to can change by changes in inflation & deflation at any time; as well as unexpected economic shifts.

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Past 8 months = Bearish Head & Shoulders

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Mid-month weekday-start (first weekday after the 15 th of the month) data is currently reflecting... 2021-10 = relatively flat. 2021-11 = decline. 2021-12 = increase. 2022-01 = relatively flat. 2022-12 = increase.

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The white lines are the BTC halving cycles. It appears that BTC may peak around 9-11 to 10-10 of 2021; based off of the past distance from the halving cycles. The M-shaped curve may see a second peak of around 51k to 76k with a midpoint of around 66.6k.

BTC may peak by October 1, 2021 - halving cycles marked

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This chart is easier to see:

Alternative view of the BTC halving cycles with estimated peaks

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BTC is likely to decline over the next 12 months. However, after an estimate 2022-09-11 date, it is very likely to being increasing based off off the extended long-run historical data and trend.

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BTC & TOTAL Market Cap may double from 2021-10-31 to 2022-02-31

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BTC may remain around 63.6k within 33 days; based off of the: 30m view; EMA ribbon.

BTC 63.6k within 33 days: 30m view; EMA ribbon

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Deflation slowing BTC purchases (NOV 8th (weekly data) ); leading to a decline in BTC prices.

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BTC log 4-hour view 2021-12-15 to 2022-03-15; increase to 76k to 86k around 2022-03-15, then decrease during late March, April, & May 2022 to around 43k to 53k.

BTC log view increase to $76k 2022-3, decrease to $43k 2022-5

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BTCUSD monthly average: 2022-01 $52666 & 2022-02 $51555

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