Last weeks high: $93,745.25
Last weeks low: $80,029.90
Midpoint: $86,887.58
Last week in crypto saw the first White House Digital Assets Summit. An event that only as recently as the last bull cycle we could only dream of taking place. In the summit that hosted the biggest names in the space a vow was made by the US Gov never to sell their BTC, to establish stablecoin regulatory clarity and to stockpile various US made altcoins. A historic moment but how did that relate to the chart?
Well BTC dropped 14.6% from weekly high set at the beginning of the week to weekly low set at the end of the week. The most important aspect is how this now looks on the higher time frames, the once strong support level of $91K has now been confirmed as new resistance as BTC tried several times to reclaim it and in the end fell away. This now puts BTC in the FVG area from $91-73K. With no real support until the $73,000 level this is knife catching territory and with the
SPX rolling over too I would need a lot more evidence that BTC will turn around before going long with any real size.
This week I anticipate further sell-off, now I would be happy to be proven wrong on that however it does look like we are heading towards
73K where I would like to see buyers stepping up and start to dominate the orderbooks. Structurally that would fill a large inefficiency area with an eye to bounce off support and move back towards currently levels ~
82K as that would be the midpoint of the FVG although that is a few steps in the future.
CPI takes place this week and so volatility may be expected but unless the result is wildly different to the forecast numbers the whipsaw PA should level out fairly neutral.
Invalidation on this idea would be a successful reclaim of $91K which is previous mini range low & 4H 200 EMA resistance.
Last weeks low: $80,029.90
Midpoint: $86,887.58
Last week in crypto saw the first White House Digital Assets Summit. An event that only as recently as the last bull cycle we could only dream of taking place. In the summit that hosted the biggest names in the space a vow was made by the US Gov never to sell their BTC, to establish stablecoin regulatory clarity and to stockpile various US made altcoins. A historic moment but how did that relate to the chart?
Well BTC dropped 14.6% from weekly high set at the beginning of the week to weekly low set at the end of the week. The most important aspect is how this now looks on the higher time frames, the once strong support level of $91K has now been confirmed as new resistance as BTC tried several times to reclaim it and in the end fell away. This now puts BTC in the FVG area from $91-73K. With no real support until the $73,000 level this is knife catching territory and with the
SPX rolling over too I would need a lot more evidence that BTC will turn around before going long with any real size. This week I anticipate further sell-off, now I would be happy to be proven wrong on that however it does look like we are heading towards
73K where I would like to see buyers stepping up and start to dominate the orderbooks. Structurally that would fill a large inefficiency area with an eye to bounce off support and move back towards currently levels ~82K as that would be the midpoint of the FVG although that is a few steps in the future. CPI takes place this week and so volatility may be expected but unless the result is wildly different to the forecast numbers the whipsaw PA should level out fairly neutral.
Invalidation on this idea would be a successful reclaim of $91K which is previous mini range low & 4H 200 EMA resistance.
Note
As Monday ends a familiar chart pattern presents itself. In many weeks this year we have seen a sweep of the weekly low and then a move back up to the midpoint and in some cases weekly high, yesterday we got the first step of that move with a sweep of demand and reclaim. We also got a bullish divergence on that double bottom sweep too on the LTF as confluence of this chart pattern playing out. The pattern is invalid as soon as price accepts below the weekly low, until then midpoint is the target for the bulls.
Note
BTC retests the weekly low and reacts well but needs to breakout above 15m 200 EMA/ diagonal resistance. Note
CPI DAYPREVIOUS: 3.0%
FORECAST: 2.9%
ACTUAL: ??
Volatility expected today as CPI data gets released, with a stock market correction in full swing and recession talk is growing this data release is important.
The forecast is showing a drop in consumer price index and IMO even 2.9% would be bearish and I say that because the sentiment is extremely poor currently in Tradfi and stocks so people would have to feel like the poor performance in recent weeks have to be worth while by dropping CPI/inflation substantially.
A higher than forecast CPI print would definitely give the FED a headache and maybe force them to cut interest rates earlier than they wanted too, this plays into the Trump admins plans of a weaker dollar and so that's why I am not ruling out a 3.0% CPI print. It would lead to yet more uncomfortable price action/ sell-off but that would only speed up Trumps plan.
In conclusion
Bullish - sub 2.8% print. At least the market sell-off is having a positive effect on inflation and isn't painful for no reason.
Bearish - 2.9% or higher. Market sell-off hasn't has an immediate effect on inflation so the sell-off is bad in all aspects except for the Trump admin moving closer to their wish of a weaker dollar and lower interest rates.
Note
ACTUAL: 2.8% Below forecast and the markets like that initially.
Note
The weekly range is structurally dictating Bitcoins every move so far, can BTC hit the midpoint target by the end of the week? 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.