01/04/24 Weekly outlook (Q2)
Updated
Last weeks high: $71771.20
Last weeks low: $69088.87
Midpoint: $66406.55
Q2 BEGINS!
BTC saw a 91.35% increase from yearly open and closed out Q1 at ~71K. A very strong first quarter on the lead up to The Halving now less than 20 days away we have only a few more weeks to get set for the event which historically brings new highs after.
Now that we have ended the month of March and begun Q2, we can see that the bulls really pushed for a strong monthly close above the '21 ATH level of 69K, a very important S/R level and now we have closed above on the monthly it's confirmed as new support.
Almost instantly after the monthly close price did drop back down to the previous weeks Midpoint of the range and the important support level. I do think we range for a while and build a base in the lead up to the Halving, any dip is probably a good entry point for long a long term hold as historically new highs come soon after the halving.
For now I think we'll see a continuation of select alts having double digit days with BTC & ETH staying relatively flat. In my opinion we're at the low cap/memecoin stage of the cycle and just waiting for the next big BTC rally to start the whole cycle again and have money flow back into BTC. Next rally should target 86K (1.272 FIB extension) and with supply halving and ETF backing I do believe it's achievable this year perhaps even this quarter.
Last weeks low: $69088.87
Midpoint: $66406.55
Q2 BEGINS!
BTC saw a 91.35% increase from yearly open and closed out Q1 at ~71K. A very strong first quarter on the lead up to The Halving now less than 20 days away we have only a few more weeks to get set for the event which historically brings new highs after.
Now that we have ended the month of March and begun Q2, we can see that the bulls really pushed for a strong monthly close above the '21 ATH level of 69K, a very important S/R level and now we have closed above on the monthly it's confirmed as new support.
Almost instantly after the monthly close price did drop back down to the previous weeks Midpoint of the range and the important support level. I do think we range for a while and build a base in the lead up to the Halving, any dip is probably a good entry point for long a long term hold as historically new highs come soon after the halving.
For now I think we'll see a continuation of select alts having double digit days with BTC & ETH staying relatively flat. In my opinion we're at the low cap/memecoin stage of the cycle and just waiting for the next big BTC rally to start the whole cycle again and have money flow back into BTC. Next rally should target 86K (1.272 FIB extension) and with supply halving and ETF backing I do believe it's achievable this year perhaps even this quarter.
Note
Back at the 4H 200EMA area again. Usually a bounce off this level that allows the market to continue up. Losing this level will be bearish in the short term, could just be the big players looking for better entries as we go into the halving.
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