Bitcoin August Projection:
Updated
Bullish Scenario:
Bitcoin has been in a cycle Wave 4 correction between March 13th and July 5th.
The correction took the shape of an Expanding Triangle in five waves.
Since July 5th, Bitcoin has completed or almost completed wave 1 of 5. This wave 1 is an extended leading diagonal. Wave 1 completed the minimum requirements. However, it may extend even higher to 74K.
Should the price close a daily candle below the upward-sloping trendline, I assume it is heading for a wave two correction, which will likely last the month of August, maybe even September.
Wave 2 should be a deep correction. The typical Target is the 0.618 retracement. I highlighted a PRZ between the 0.5 and the 0.786 retracements. The PRZ will need to be adjusted should Bitcoin make an HH.
Two Possible Short-Term Scenarios:
1. Bull Trap: On Wednesday, the FED will announce rates. Traders will try to front the rate cut announcement, and Bitcoin will make a HH. If this occurs, look out for a Regular Bearish divergence and a false breakout, which will kick off the correction in wave 2.
2. Direct Breakdown: This scenario assumes that wave 2 is already underway. Wave 2 confirmation is the breakdown from the trendline. In that case, I expect the price to find support at around 63.5K for a dead cat bounce in wave B.
It is too early to say, but this is a nice scenario to watch out for:
Bearish Scenario:
This is less likely, but the possibility exists.
1. Bull Trap: Bitcoin will move to range high to make a UTAD, possibly because of an early rate cut announcement. Following the UTAD, Bitcoin will begin a decline, signaling the end of the bull market.
2. LPSY: It is also possible to consider July 29th as an LPSY in phase D. If this is the case, we are going down directly.
Bitcoin has been in a cycle Wave 4 correction between March 13th and July 5th.
The correction took the shape of an Expanding Triangle in five waves.
Since July 5th, Bitcoin has completed or almost completed wave 1 of 5. This wave 1 is an extended leading diagonal. Wave 1 completed the minimum requirements. However, it may extend even higher to 74K.
Should the price close a daily candle below the upward-sloping trendline, I assume it is heading for a wave two correction, which will likely last the month of August, maybe even September.
Wave 2 should be a deep correction. The typical Target is the 0.618 retracement. I highlighted a PRZ between the 0.5 and the 0.786 retracements. The PRZ will need to be adjusted should Bitcoin make an HH.
Two Possible Short-Term Scenarios:
1. Bull Trap: On Wednesday, the FED will announce rates. Traders will try to front the rate cut announcement, and Bitcoin will make a HH. If this occurs, look out for a Regular Bearish divergence and a false breakout, which will kick off the correction in wave 2.
2. Direct Breakdown: This scenario assumes that wave 2 is already underway. Wave 2 confirmation is the breakdown from the trendline. In that case, I expect the price to find support at around 63.5K for a dead cat bounce in wave B.
It is too early to say, but this is a nice scenario to watch out for:
Bearish Scenario:
This is less likely, but the possibility exists.
1. Bull Trap: Bitcoin will move to range high to make a UTAD, possibly because of an early rate cut announcement. Following the UTAD, Bitcoin will begin a decline, signaling the end of the bull market.
2. LPSY: It is also possible to consider July 29th as an LPSY in phase D. If this is the case, we are going down directly.
Note
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