Good morning everyone and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the daily chart pulled up after a pretty flat weekend. I usually expect the weekends to be a more docile time in the markets. We did drop to 8840 briefly before recovering to 9k+ where we are sitting at currently. We are seemingly losing ground slowly but surely. The bulls seem intent on keeping us above the 9k mark but those bears have a trick up their sleeve I imagine. Lets take a look at the charts.
First of all I want to point out we are firmly within the grasp of the daily cloud once again. We spent months free from the cloud but it caught back up to us and now we are in the middle of a big thunder cloud. The thing is the daily 50 MA and the top border of the daily cloud. This should make any attempt to escape the clutches of the cloud more difficult no doubt. Looking below us the daily 200 MA is merged with the bottom border of the cloud (more or less) and that should act as stronger support as a result. If we do lose the 200 MA and the cloud it will be pretty bearish if you ask me and we may see a sell off occur.
The cloud alone can be quite confining and it does a good job of entrapping the candles when they enter the cloud. But when other indicators (in this case the daily 50 MA and daily 200 MA) line up with the borders of the cloud it is a prison sentence at that point. Good luck escaping from that prison. Although after we do our time we should be out. We are still above the weekly cloud which is a positive signal but the writing is still on the wall. I have a bear vs bull checklist and the bulls are slowly losing ground. Every support we turn into resistance is a win for the bears and if this continues the bears will have their day in the sun very soon.
A quick take off the 4hr time frame can see us well below the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr 200 MA and the 4hr cloud. Those are 3 of my key indicators and when the candles are below all three of these indicators you can see why Im leaning towards the bearish sentiment at this time. Not that the bulls cannot surprise us all. We know they can. But after such an epic pump from 3800 to 10400 expecting another pump is asking a lot I suppose. Not to mention that 2.5 year descending resistance is still above our heads and as a result breaking above 10100ish will be quite the chore.
When we do finally break the descending resistance above our heads Im guessing fomo will likely ensue. It usually happens when age old resistance is beaten and just between you and me I think we may see a down trend before we do finally break up and out of the descending resistance that has plagued us for years. How far down do I think we can go? Well the bottom of the larger pattern shows a bottom of the low to mid 3k range. That definitely doesnt mean we go that low. I just like to be aware of my surroundings at all time. We still have a mountain of indicators still holding us up from that fate. Even if we did lose most of that support a dip to the mid 3k range is extreme but not out of the question. Then again nothing is out of the question for Bitcoin.
The general consensus is bearish from my point of view. I had someone tell me when people are all bearish its time to buy and while I like the contrarian attitude I would still enter a long with extreme caution at this point in time. We may go up a bit over the day but not by a lot in my opinion. If you have to enter that long just set a stop loss and be safe. I dont see any gaps from the weekend so that is another thing we can eliminate from the equation. Before you leave the house today bring an umbrella folks. Things could get a bit ugly. But then again WTFDIK right???
TLDR: Bitcoin may go up or down or sideways... But I do know one thing.. It wont go backwards
First of all I want to point out we are firmly within the grasp of the daily cloud once again. We spent months free from the cloud but it caught back up to us and now we are in the middle of a big thunder cloud. The thing is the daily 50 MA and the top border of the daily cloud. This should make any attempt to escape the clutches of the cloud more difficult no doubt. Looking below us the daily 200 MA is merged with the bottom border of the cloud (more or less) and that should act as stronger support as a result. If we do lose the 200 MA and the cloud it will be pretty bearish if you ask me and we may see a sell off occur.
The cloud alone can be quite confining and it does a good job of entrapping the candles when they enter the cloud. But when other indicators (in this case the daily 50 MA and daily 200 MA) line up with the borders of the cloud it is a prison sentence at that point. Good luck escaping from that prison. Although after we do our time we should be out. We are still above the weekly cloud which is a positive signal but the writing is still on the wall. I have a bear vs bull checklist and the bulls are slowly losing ground. Every support we turn into resistance is a win for the bears and if this continues the bears will have their day in the sun very soon.
A quick take off the 4hr time frame can see us well below the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr 200 MA and the 4hr cloud. Those are 3 of my key indicators and when the candles are below all three of these indicators you can see why Im leaning towards the bearish sentiment at this time. Not that the bulls cannot surprise us all. We know they can. But after such an epic pump from 3800 to 10400 expecting another pump is asking a lot I suppose. Not to mention that 2.5 year descending resistance is still above our heads and as a result breaking above 10100ish will be quite the chore.
When we do finally break the descending resistance above our heads Im guessing fomo will likely ensue. It usually happens when age old resistance is beaten and just between you and me I think we may see a down trend before we do finally break up and out of the descending resistance that has plagued us for years. How far down do I think we can go? Well the bottom of the larger pattern shows a bottom of the low to mid 3k range. That definitely doesnt mean we go that low. I just like to be aware of my surroundings at all time. We still have a mountain of indicators still holding us up from that fate. Even if we did lose most of that support a dip to the mid 3k range is extreme but not out of the question. Then again nothing is out of the question for Bitcoin.
The general consensus is bearish from my point of view. I had someone tell me when people are all bearish its time to buy and while I like the contrarian attitude I would still enter a long with extreme caution at this point in time. We may go up a bit over the day but not by a lot in my opinion. If you have to enter that long just set a stop loss and be safe. I dont see any gaps from the weekend so that is another thing we can eliminate from the equation. Before you leave the house today bring an umbrella folks. Things could get a bit ugly. But then again WTFDIK right???
TLDR: Bitcoin may go up or down or sideways... But I do know one thing.. It wont go backwards
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.