BTC "FINAL HOPE" on Nov 2nd
Updated
FED FOMC Decision on Nov 2nd weighs heavy upon all markets, including crypto market. While other markets have shown high volatility in accordance with any macro related news, crypto market surprisingly moves in a calm manner despite being known for its infamous volatility, which actually scares me the most. Why? Because it means that any major macro news will release the spring that's been holding crypto market, especially Bitcoin, and will launch it with ultra volatility that can be either up or down. Knowing which movement will take place before the price action actually happens on Nov 2nd gives you total advantage on that very specific ultra volatile price action. So let's break down all the data that we can use to help us determine which direction will occur:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
<Daily Time Frame>
- Heikin-Ashi Candles show that we are still in a strong downtrend, you can see it clearly especially on higher time frames (weekly, monthly)
- Ichimoku Cloud is still above the price, with a huge red cloud along with other strong resistances that we've seen rejecting the price for weeks
- A huge red Ichimoku Cloud is still being projected ahead, and no sign of turning green anytime soon
- Conversion Line (yellow) is below the Base Line (blue), crossing it down
- Lagging Span (purple) is still below the cloud, which crossed down back on April (and hasn't yet crossed up), which indicates we're still in a strong downtrend since then
- 50 EMA (yellow dots) is still above the price, and far below 200 EMA (blue dots) which is still waaay up there, untouchable
- A Bearish Descending Triangle from Sept 13th local top (in blue) which has rejected the price and acts as a strong resistance
- A Strong Support Zone between $17.500 - $18.500, along with the base line of the Descending Triangle, which has proven to be a strong support area
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
- Macroeconomic conditions is getting worse and worse, no sign of getting better anytime soon, including wars
- All those bad things combined with actual data, give no reason for the FED to stop their hawkish stance anytime soon, in fact these give them all the reason to keep getting it tighter and tighter, I really doubt FED will pivot even if the UN and all countries in the world urge them to do so, at least not on Nov 2nd
- USD is skyrocketing
- Previous similar bullish patterns might not work, considering the macros atm (if previous similar patterns indicate a capitulation, then it will most likely be the same this time around, unless something good miraculously happens)
CONCLUSION
- Overall I'm still super bearish at the time of this writing
- I won't even consider a trend reversal from bear to bull market, let alone saying that this bear market has bottomed, unless the price crosses above the ichimoku cloud, closes there, and maintains the position there (21K-22K range), or even shows some strong bullish momentums. I still prefer a breakout and close above 32K though.
!!! HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE, THESE ARE BULL TRAPS. BE CAREFUL NOT TO BE SUPER BULLISH IN A BEARISH MACRO !!!
- If this time price breaks 17.5K-18.5K strong support zone in a single move, high chance it will be a disastrous cascade down (imagine all the SLs there)
- A break and close below the previous 17.6K low, and macro pressure, will signal a prolonged downtrend (it can be a fake, a bear trap, but only for a short time)
- If a big capitulation does occur, and BTC creates a lower low, I really can't say if the true bottom is there unless FED pivots and macro conditions are getting better, BUT there will be a quick recovery movement upwards (usually until the previously broken strong support), and then ranging again until the next major events
- A bear market doesn't mean the price can't go up big time
- Coin inflow/outflow from exchanges, volume, DOMs, etc might be the work of manipulators, ride the trend, stay with macros, and don't fight the FED
- Next BTC halving might indicate bottom and the start of the next bull run, we'll need to see how our macros doing then
DISCLAIMER
This is an article, not a financial advice
Do your own research, spend your money wisely
Your money is your own responsibility, so is your action
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
<Daily Time Frame>
- Heikin-Ashi Candles show that we are still in a strong downtrend, you can see it clearly especially on higher time frames (weekly, monthly)
- Ichimoku Cloud is still above the price, with a huge red cloud along with other strong resistances that we've seen rejecting the price for weeks
- A huge red Ichimoku Cloud is still being projected ahead, and no sign of turning green anytime soon
- Conversion Line (yellow) is below the Base Line (blue), crossing it down
- Lagging Span (purple) is still below the cloud, which crossed down back on April (and hasn't yet crossed up), which indicates we're still in a strong downtrend since then
- 50 EMA (yellow dots) is still above the price, and far below 200 EMA (blue dots) which is still waaay up there, untouchable
- A Bearish Descending Triangle from Sept 13th local top (in blue) which has rejected the price and acts as a strong resistance
- A Strong Support Zone between $17.500 - $18.500, along with the base line of the Descending Triangle, which has proven to be a strong support area
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
- Macroeconomic conditions is getting worse and worse, no sign of getting better anytime soon, including wars
- All those bad things combined with actual data, give no reason for the FED to stop their hawkish stance anytime soon, in fact these give them all the reason to keep getting it tighter and tighter, I really doubt FED will pivot even if the UN and all countries in the world urge them to do so, at least not on Nov 2nd
- USD is skyrocketing
- Previous similar bullish patterns might not work, considering the macros atm (if previous similar patterns indicate a capitulation, then it will most likely be the same this time around, unless something good miraculously happens)
CONCLUSION
- Overall I'm still super bearish at the time of this writing
- I won't even consider a trend reversal from bear to bull market, let alone saying that this bear market has bottomed, unless the price crosses above the ichimoku cloud, closes there, and maintains the position there (21K-22K range), or even shows some strong bullish momentums. I still prefer a breakout and close above 32K though.
!!! HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE, THESE ARE BULL TRAPS. BE CAREFUL NOT TO BE SUPER BULLISH IN A BEARISH MACRO !!!
- If this time price breaks 17.5K-18.5K strong support zone in a single move, high chance it will be a disastrous cascade down (imagine all the SLs there)
- A break and close below the previous 17.6K low, and macro pressure, will signal a prolonged downtrend (it can be a fake, a bear trap, but only for a short time)
- If a big capitulation does occur, and BTC creates a lower low, I really can't say if the true bottom is there unless FED pivots and macro conditions are getting better, BUT there will be a quick recovery movement upwards (usually until the previously broken strong support), and then ranging again until the next major events
- A bear market doesn't mean the price can't go up big time
- Coin inflow/outflow from exchanges, volume, DOMs, etc might be the work of manipulators, ride the trend, stay with macros, and don't fight the FED
- Next BTC halving might indicate bottom and the start of the next bull run, we'll need to see how our macros doing then
DISCLAIMER
This is an article, not a financial advice
Do your own research, spend your money wisely
Your money is your own responsibility, so is your action
Note
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
YOUR MONEY IS YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
YOUR MONEY IS YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.