BTC Impulsive wave up or correction
Updated
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If you don't believe in Elliot Wave there is still hope for you - please stick around. I also use other TA.
So where is BTC right now?
- Multi-month price decline since late 2021,
- After setting a swing low around 17,600 BTC has made a series of higher highs and higher lows that are contained within a parallel channel quite neatly,
- After reaching the upper trend-line and peaking at $24,200, price started to decline again.
From the price action from the 13th to the 20th of July I can tell a few things; That was not an impulsive up-trend, but rather a corrective rally. Why?
1. The first five waves from the low (marked (i) to (v)) don't reach normal fib extensions of at least 1.618 of wave (i). Not groundbreaking, but suggests some weakness in the trend. There was no cross-over in the wave (i) peak and wave (iv) low.
2. The second five waves up show some interesting qualities;
- There was a cross-over in the wave (i) peak and the wave (iv) low - assuming the count is correct - This would denote an impulse wave failure (at the $22,900 level) and possible reversal.
- An ending fifth wave diagonal developed. This is a deformation of a normal impulse wave due to strong overhead selling pressure that sort of flattens it downwards.
- The price then breaks out of the bottom of the diagonal trendline, popped up for a re-test, and was definitively rejected (I would expect $23,950 to be resistance in the short-term.
3. I am expecting a re-test of the lower channel trend-line at 20,600 to 21,900 (watching the 21,800 level for support first). Who knows, we may only see a partial decline that never reaches the lower trend-line - which would be bullish of course. We may get a lower trend-line breakout and price heading lower.
I don't think professional traders have had enough of a chance to shake out people in long positions, so the price will "whip-saw" somewhat for a little while before the up-trend is re-established.
Am still looking for definitive bullish RSI divergence on the daily time-frame. Some weak divergence is evident but I would like to see a lower low in price matched with a (or series of) higher low(s) on RSI.
That's all for now, protect those funds.
If you don't believe in Elliot Wave there is still hope for you - please stick around. I also use other TA.
So where is BTC right now?
- Multi-month price decline since late 2021,
- After setting a swing low around 17,600 BTC has made a series of higher highs and higher lows that are contained within a parallel channel quite neatly,
- After reaching the upper trend-line and peaking at $24,200, price started to decline again.
From the price action from the 13th to the 20th of July I can tell a few things; That was not an impulsive up-trend, but rather a corrective rally. Why?
1. The first five waves from the low (marked (i) to (v)) don't reach normal fib extensions of at least 1.618 of wave (i). Not groundbreaking, but suggests some weakness in the trend. There was no cross-over in the wave (i) peak and wave (iv) low.
2. The second five waves up show some interesting qualities;
- There was a cross-over in the wave (i) peak and the wave (iv) low - assuming the count is correct - This would denote an impulse wave failure (at the $22,900 level) and possible reversal.
- An ending fifth wave diagonal developed. This is a deformation of a normal impulse wave due to strong overhead selling pressure that sort of flattens it downwards.
- The price then breaks out of the bottom of the diagonal trendline, popped up for a re-test, and was definitively rejected (I would expect $23,950 to be resistance in the short-term.
3. I am expecting a re-test of the lower channel trend-line at 20,600 to 21,900 (watching the 21,800 level for support first). Who knows, we may only see a partial decline that never reaches the lower trend-line - which would be bullish of course. We may get a lower trend-line breakout and price heading lower.
I don't think professional traders have had enough of a chance to shake out people in long positions, so the price will "whip-saw" somewhat for a little while before the up-trend is re-established.
Am still looking for definitive bullish RSI divergence on the daily time-frame. Some weak divergence is evident but I would like to see a lower low in price matched with a (or series of) higher low(s) on RSI.
That's all for now, protect those funds.
Trade closed: target reached
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