22/04/24 Weekly outlook
Updated
Last weeks high: $66857.53
Last weeks low: $63230.46
Midpoint: $59603.38
The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete, the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC. The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight, despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly.
Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level. After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time.
Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently 16.4B in total. A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market. It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth.
This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend.
Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
Last weeks low: $63230.46
Midpoint: $59603.38
The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete, the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC. The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight, despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly.
Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level. After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time.
Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently 16.4B in total. A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market. It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth.
This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend.
Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
Note
Tested the previous weeks high 3 times, looking to break above and target the FVG/'21 ATH. Need to confirm 4H 200EMA to become support again first.
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