the btc long and short term trend

BTC in 4 hours K line there is an obvious phenomenon of multiple bottom deviation, look from the MACD already have on the way up, from the wave theory, has gone through three waves complete fall, dual stack, here have a strong reverse the trend, from 19504 to now, all MOVING AVERAGE line are long, so big trend should be large probability is to continue to rise, Back to the second wave down the finishing platform 30000, so to establish the bottom position now, but in the short term because of too much deviation from the average, there is a shock repair average, stepped on the average after continued to rise. So I personally would buy 30% of the position to cover the long term trend, and then 5% of the position to trade short term volatility
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