Long

Updated

CYCLE 4 | UPDATE - BTC Possible Next Move into Sell Zone

A quick chart to outline BTCs possible next move up if bulls take control again as we enter in March out of the current consolidation zone.

What we would be looking for in this scenario is a retest and hold of the below 20W SMA | 21W EMA, sweeping our prior low of the current range. See daily charts below.

Daily Chart(S) Showing 1.618 Over Extension

Daily Chart(S) Showing 1.618 Over Extension & Daily Order Block

Back on the weekly, this will allow BTC to rest back down to the lower RSI line, hopefully put in some divergent behavior and push BTC up to our long term tracking Sell Zone area and the 1.618 Fix Extension region.

Trade active

A quick update on the daily with BTC now testing the 20W SMA.

Trade closed: target reached

Quick Update: BTC currently broken through and now testing as support the previously identified Daily 'order block' (light blue rectangle) shown on the 12h time frame.

BULLS: Will be aiming to close te weekly above the 20W SMA & 21W EMA and close the Monthly this Friday above 93K

BEARS: If bears are able to push BTC below these levels as we push into the monthly close the lower 'CME Gap' level around ~$80K would be the next point of interest.

CYCLE 4 | CME GAP - View on the Daily Chart

Note

A Quick update on this post.... While the monthly candle close was horrible (see below);

The weekly candle has recovered price back into our consolidation channel (a little later than we would have liked to see this reflected in the monthly close).

A full win for the bulls on the weekly IMO would have been a close above 96.3k (above the consolidation range weekly order block), but to get back into our consilidation channel was a decent effort....

Call outs over this post would be BTCs tendency to again close CME gaps which BTC does not have a 100% record in completing but did eventuate so far with this pull back (Almost closed completely - pullback went to 78.6K, CME GAP $81.2 to $77.3K).

Expect to see a bit of down before up if bulls do follow through from here.... Bulls have pushed us above the 20W SMA / 21W EMA so a confirmation and hold as support is the first point of call IMO for bulls to convince the market in the short term.

The challenge for bulls in March is we want to see bulls deal with this horrible monthly candle close, and prove to the market that over sold indicators are not a topping sign but a conformation of a bubbly / frothy over extended market that has more to give before down...

March we want to see bulls prove to the market that we are entering into the business end of the bull run and not confirmation of a lack luster distribution phase...

Note

Weekly Candle Close up close:

Note

Daily Close Retesting 20W Moving Average as we speak.

Lets see if Bulls can hold the line 🍿

Note

Ironically, in closing the previously identified CME GAP discussed in this post an even larger CME gap was created (see below).

Currently in the process of closing this also!

Note

MARKET VOLATILITY
Bitcoin has experienced the expected volatility discussed at the beginning of this post (media have branded the reason for this on):
* US Crypto Federal Reserve Tweets
* US Tariffs (Canada & Mexico Start)

CME GAPS
Technically BTC has close 3 CME Gaps over this volatile period:
* Price Down - Original CME GAP @ ~$78.2k ~$81.3k (Partial Close)
* Price Up - Recently created CME GAP @ ~$93.7k ~$81.3k (Full Close)
* Price Down - Instantly created CME GAP @ ~$95.0k ~$84.9k (Full Close)

This will hopefully satisfy the short-term Bulls and Bears and medium-term Bears.

DAILY CLOSE RECOVERY
Now this volatility period has played out, medium and long term Bulls can focus on price momentum repair. The short-term daily targets for Bulls with the up coming daily close are listed below:

BULL RUN PRICE ACTION
BULLs - looking at this consolidation period now have their spring in place. We want to see follow through from the bulls, pushing price up to new levels from here if we are to see recovery. Bulls have their opportunity now in place for Bull run continuation and confirmation the market cycle still has more to come.

BEARs - have already retested and held as resistance the lower levels of our consolidation channel around the 92K level and will use this to point out market momentum has swung to the Bears favor. Bulls need to break back into the consolidation and hold this level as support to invalidate this thesis with coming candles. Bears need to show follow through and more than a sweep of the lows to convince the market cycle momentum has changed.

Brodie

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Brodie

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