Headline & Core Inflation 13:30 (GMT) see's the release of the atest round of inflation data. The results here are pretty black and white high inflation (over 2.6% YOY for Inflation, over 3.2% for Core Inflation) is bad. End of.
We need inflation t come down so we can cut the rates.
Heres where any predictions get a bit tricky though. Very good inflation data 2% like 2% or under could mean we get a big rate cut (50bps is a 33% chance atm). That would send the market wild. Coming in at 2.6% / 2.5% will give us a 25bps rate cut - which is bullish but might be priced in to some degree.
Either way, low inflation good. High infation bad. Inflation Rate (YOY) Predicted = 2.6% Priced In <2.6% = Bullish >2.6% = Bearish
Core Inflation Rate (YOY) - Inflation data not including food and fuel. Predicted = 3.2% Priced In <3.2% = Bullish >3.2% = Bearish
Technicals In terms of the charts I'd say thats an ascending triangle.
Nice little series of higher lows being capped by flat resistance at 57.5k.
Usually a bullish set up, but realistically thats not going to mean alot if inflation is 9%.
Trading Plan What we can say though is that the overhead resistance starting at $57.5 is basically toast if we get a good inflation read so If we get a good read go long.
Targets are not clear but after the immediate cluster theres an old support/resistance at 63.7k so maybe target 60k (59.9k to be safe) and 63.7k incase we blow through it.
Bad inflation = short. It could be bad but still take incramental profit to be safe at support, so 53.5k, 50k and maybe hold a bit back as we could easily sink much lower.
Prediction - 2.6% price pumps to 60k area (I hope!)
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.