In this analysis I want to take a look at last cycle's pre-halving year (2019) pump, which took us from 3.100$ to 14.000$, and compare it to this cycles pre-halving year pump (2023).
Since we're only looking at a single indicator this analysis should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's useful to compare the current market to last cycle's market for the simple reason that market's often rhyme.
In 2019, Bitcoin rallied all the way towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, which was also the yearly high. If we look at the current cycle, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement is placed around 48.500$. Interestingly enough, 48.500$ is around the same area as the 2022 yearly high of March 2022.
Assuming that the analysis will hold and that BTC will again rally towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, we could assume that the yearly high is placed around the 48.500$ area, which is interestingly enough also the next area of long-term resistance.
Pump to 48.500 and then dump? Who knows. All we can say now is that BTC looks great and there's likely no reason to worry in the short-term.
What is your prediction for the next few months? Bitcoin at 48.5k, or even higher maybe? Share your thoughts. 🙏