Fake it Until You Make it
Updated
I think there is a very good chance we will have one more move downward before we get the last strong reaction to the upside, therefore I have closed my long at a slight profit and may even short the next bounce.
We have not tested the 4-hr 200 ema since the beginning of this entire rally, and much like how we bounced from there on April 7th before making one last high, it seems likely we will experience a similar move this time around as well.
A perfect bullish gartley pattern can be formed, after which the .272 extension will be taken and then it will be time to open short.
Please ignore this if you feel the high is already in. There is evidence to support that thesis as well, however having missed the short opportunity at 50.5k I am looking for a best-case scenario. Either way, all this choppy price action should soon be coming to an end, which will provide greater opportunity for the next longer-term trade.
I've been sniping short entries this entire rally, largely unsuccessfully; now that the tide is turning I'm looking for a long! Do you guys tend to look for counter-trend moves as well? I'm finding that I get burned far more often than not. However, the one time that I actually do catch the market top or bottom, that will increase my account substantially. The key is small losses until you get that one big win!
We have not tested the 4-hr 200 ema since the beginning of this entire rally, and much like how we bounced from there on April 7th before making one last high, it seems likely we will experience a similar move this time around as well.
A perfect bullish gartley pattern can be formed, after which the .272 extension will be taken and then it will be time to open short.
Please ignore this if you feel the high is already in. There is evidence to support that thesis as well, however having missed the short opportunity at 50.5k I am looking for a best-case scenario. Either way, all this choppy price action should soon be coming to an end, which will provide greater opportunity for the next longer-term trade.
I've been sniping short entries this entire rally, largely unsuccessfully; now that the tide is turning I'm looking for a long! Do you guys tend to look for counter-trend moves as well? I'm finding that I get burned far more often than not. However, the one time that I actually do catch the market top or bottom, that will increase my account substantially. The key is small losses until you get that one big win!
Note
I forgot to mention, the slightly more bearish scenario here is that we top out after retesting the purple weekly resistance line. If we revisit it I will certainly be tempted to short there first. It really depends on the strength of the 4-hr candles in that range. One really bad one and we lower our expectations and flip to open short immediately.
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