Is the Bull Run Over? BTC to $70K? (#7)
Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent days, dropping to the first major support level at 85K. Let’s analyze the key fundamental drivers behind this decline, upcoming triggers, and finally, share a few words for those who faced liquidation or major losses.
Fundamental Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Decline
In recent days, Bitcoin has suffered a sharp correction, declining approximately 7.1% over the past week, falling from $99,244 to $86,776. This February 25, 2025, market downturn—dubbed a “market bloodbath”—was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific factors. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Capital Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs 📉
One of the primary reasons for Bitcoin’s recent decline has been significant capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Reports indicate that over $1 billion exited these funds in the past two weeks, with the worst single-day outflow reaching $583 million. This reduced demand exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
2. Strengthening US Dollar (DXY Index) 💵
The DXY index, a measure of the US dollar’s strength, has surged to 106.4385, its highest level in recent years. Historically, a stronger dollar diminishes the appeal of risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This inverse correlation was a key factor in Bitcoin’s recent selloff.
3. Geopolitical Tensions & Economic Uncertainty 🌎
Recent decisions by Donald Trump’s administration, such as imposing trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico and investment restrictions on China, have fueled market uncertainty. As a result, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, which has further pressured Bitcoin.
4. Broader Market Volatility & Crypto-Specific Events
Stock Market Turbulence: The S&P 500 recorded its worst week since Trump’s inauguration, and the Nasdaq is down 5% from its December 2024 highs. This increased risk aversion has negatively impacted Bitcoin.
Bybit Hack & Trust Issues: The recent Bybit hack, where $1.5 billion was stolen, has shaken confidence in centralized exchanges, prompting mass withdrawals.
Mass Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, more than $650 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, amplifying the price drop.
Technical Analysis: Where is Bitcoin Headed?
1. Daily Time Frame Analysis 🕵️♂️
Bitcoin is now testing a key support zone at 85K. The next critical support lies at 80K–82K, which aligns with major demand zones and historical price action.
Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above 85K, it could resume the major uptrend and reclaim higher levels.
Bearish Case: A break and close below 80K–82K would invalidate the bull run, shifting the major trend to bearish and signaling a deeper correction.
2. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) & Altcoin Market 📊
BTC.D remains elevated, meaning capital is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than altcoins. However, if BTC consolidates while BTC.D drops, it could trigger an altcoin season. In contrast, if Bitcoin breaks below 85K, short setups on altcoins become highly attractive.
3. Trading Strategy & Next Steps
Final Thoughts: A Message for Those Facing Losses
Many traders faced liquidations or heavy losses during this drop. If you’re among them, take a deep breath—this is part of the trading journey. Every successful trader has gone through periods of adversity. Learn from your mistakes, refine your risk management, and move forward smarter.
This is not the end—it’s just another phase of the market cycle. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and keep growing.
I’m Skeptic, and I’ll see you in the next analysis! 🔥
Fundamental Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Decline
In recent days, Bitcoin has suffered a sharp correction, declining approximately 7.1% over the past week, falling from $99,244 to $86,776. This February 25, 2025, market downturn—dubbed a “market bloodbath”—was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific factors. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Capital Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs 📉
One of the primary reasons for Bitcoin’s recent decline has been significant capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Reports indicate that over $1 billion exited these funds in the past two weeks, with the worst single-day outflow reaching $583 million. This reduced demand exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
2. Strengthening US Dollar (DXY Index) 💵
The DXY index, a measure of the US dollar’s strength, has surged to 106.4385, its highest level in recent years. Historically, a stronger dollar diminishes the appeal of risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This inverse correlation was a key factor in Bitcoin’s recent selloff.
3. Geopolitical Tensions & Economic Uncertainty 🌎
Recent decisions by Donald Trump’s administration, such as imposing trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico and investment restrictions on China, have fueled market uncertainty. As a result, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, which has further pressured Bitcoin.
4. Broader Market Volatility & Crypto-Specific Events
Stock Market Turbulence: The S&P 500 recorded its worst week since Trump’s inauguration, and the Nasdaq is down 5% from its December 2024 highs. This increased risk aversion has negatively impacted Bitcoin.
Bybit Hack & Trust Issues: The recent Bybit hack, where $1.5 billion was stolen, has shaken confidence in centralized exchanges, prompting mass withdrawals.
Mass Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, more than $650 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, amplifying the price drop.
Technical Analysis: Where is Bitcoin Headed?
1. Daily Time Frame Analysis 🕵️♂️
Bitcoin is now testing a key support zone at 85K. The next critical support lies at 80K–82K, which aligns with major demand zones and historical price action.
Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above 85K, it could resume the major uptrend and reclaim higher levels.
Bearish Case: A break and close below 80K–82K would invalidate the bull run, shifting the major trend to bearish and signaling a deeper correction.
2. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) & Altcoin Market 📊
BTC.D remains elevated, meaning capital is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than altcoins. However, if BTC consolidates while BTC.D drops, it could trigger an altcoin season. In contrast, if Bitcoin breaks below 85K, short setups on altcoins become highly attractive.
3. Trading Strategy & Next Steps
- For Bulls 🐂: Look for bullish confirmations above 85K with proper risk management.
- For Bears 🐻: Wait for a confirmed breakdown below 80K–82K before entering short positions.
- Altcoin Traders 💎: If BTC finds support, focus on potential altcoin bounces; if BTC breaks down, short weak altcoins.
Final Thoughts: A Message for Those Facing Losses
Many traders faced liquidations or heavy losses during this drop. If you’re among them, take a deep breath—this is part of the trading journey. Every successful trader has gone through periods of adversity. Learn from your mistakes, refine your risk management, and move forward smarter.
This is not the end—it’s just another phase of the market cycle. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and keep growing.
I’m Skeptic, and I’ll see you in the next analysis! 🔥
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.