If we look at this purely based on the well-established DOWN-trend, I believe this is the most likely outcome. We have seen bounce after bounce since May and BTC is clearly trying to keep its head out of the water. The problem is we know the likely outcome of that story.
This is not based on bias and is only from an observational standpoint. This is just to give a clear perspective of the situation.
If it does break that trend, there could potentially be a rally but this is a very wishful scenario. Do NOT trade on wishfulness.