04/11/24 Weekly outlook
Updated
Last weeks high: $73,633.97
Last weeks low: $67,477.38
Midpoint: $70,555.67
ELECTION WEEK IS HERE! This is the one we've all been waiting for and probably been nervous about. On the 5th November the US election takes place, now we might not know for certain who has won on that day but we should have a good idea barring no funny business. At time of writing, Trump leads the betting market polls 57.7% : 42.3% which is down significantly from last weeks high of 67%. A lot can happen between now and tomorrow but for BTC and crypto in general a Trump win should be favourable to the markets, a Harris win might delay cryptos progress IMO.
If the US election wasn't enough for one week FOMC takes place a couple of days later. With a forecasted cut of 25bps coming taking the interest rate from 5.00% to 4.75%. The last FOMC saw a 50bps cut so the FED is rapidly moving to a more risk on environment which should be pro crypto, however I do think the election result will dwarf this FOMC in importance as the 25bps cut has been known about for awhile and most likely priced in.
Obviously the election is the main focus of this week, a number of projects have token unlocks this week too:
Larger % circ. supply:
NEON,BANANA,ADA,XAI,BGB,AGI
Smaller % Cir. supply:
SOL,WLD,TIA,TAO,AVAX,DOGE,SEI,NEAR,DOT,SUI&FIL
The altcoin market is still at the mercy of BTC and BTC is at the mercy of this election currently so we'll have a better picture of what the future may look like by the end of the week.
Last weeks low: $67,477.38
Midpoint: $70,555.67
ELECTION WEEK IS HERE! This is the one we've all been waiting for and probably been nervous about. On the 5th November the US election takes place, now we might not know for certain who has won on that day but we should have a good idea barring no funny business. At time of writing, Trump leads the betting market polls 57.7% : 42.3% which is down significantly from last weeks high of 67%. A lot can happen between now and tomorrow but for BTC and crypto in general a Trump win should be favourable to the markets, a Harris win might delay cryptos progress IMO.
If the US election wasn't enough for one week FOMC takes place a couple of days later. With a forecasted cut of 25bps coming taking the interest rate from 5.00% to 4.75%. The last FOMC saw a 50bps cut so the FED is rapidly moving to a more risk on environment which should be pro crypto, however I do think the election result will dwarf this FOMC in importance as the 25bps cut has been known about for awhile and most likely priced in.
Obviously the election is the main focus of this week, a number of projects have token unlocks this week too:
Larger % circ. supply:
NEON,BANANA,ADA,XAI,BGB,AGI
Smaller % Cir. supply:
SOL,WLD,TIA,TAO,AVAX,DOGE,SEI,NEAR,DOT,SUI&FIL
The altcoin market is still at the mercy of BTC and BTC is at the mercy of this election currently so we'll have a better picture of what the future may look like by the end of the week.
Note
Sweep of the weekly low is complete, obviously nervousness and de-risking taking place before the election but I would like to see the weekly low hold. Would be very promising if it could.Note
THE BIG DAY IS HERE
Back at 0.25 line resistance @ $69,000 '21 ATH. This truly is the most important level for BTC @ the most important time in the bullmarket. The pressure is on!
Note
Back at range midpoint, I think FA tops TA for this week but the range is providing levels of clear interest so far. Note
With Trump set to win BTC hits new ATH!!!
From an FA standpoint this looks to be a catalyst for growth, however although a new ATH was just printed it a SFP has also just been printed.
I'm expecting increased volatility until everything is set in stone, new highs end of year.
Trade active
Weekly high is new support! Great progress so far from bitcoin post US election. 
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