BTC Long Term Buy Levels and Sentiment Discussion
Updated
Not financial advice - I hope you find my TradingView posts educational and entertaining
Bitcoin has been struggling as of late behind a harsh economic backdrop.
Historically, Bitcoin has not performed well in September and I don't see 2022 being an exception.
From the previous all time high of Bitcoin in November 2021, it is down upwards of 70%. Looking at bear markets historically, hitting the 85% mark would indicate the end of the bear market in the range of $10-14K. Let's look at some important pieces of information to keep in mind over the coming days, weeks and months.
Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates tomorrow (9/21) by either 75 or 100 basis points. Given that the S&P 500 is holding below resistance, markets are prepared to either push above or fall below. Bitcoin is in a very similar situation.
The Federal Reserve has expressed that their primary goal is to get inflation under control. With consumer inflation dropping slightly, and core inflation increasing slightly, I am personally expecting a 100 point hike.
Bitcoin dropping below the 0.618 Fibonacci circle would be exceptionally bearish, finding temporary support at the 0.5 Fibonacci circle.
Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment
There is an abundance of fear in the market. Anticipation of doom, with Bitcoin reaching levels of 10K, 9K,
4K, even 2K. These levels are possible, especially since this is the first recession Bitcoin has been a part of.
Assuming an (unlikely) pivot from the Federal Reserve, this doom sentiment may indicate a (temporary) double bottom on BTC. Historically it is rare to see the cryptocurrency fear and greed go below 10, which we have already seen during this bear market.
My Takeaways
Never invest more than you are willing to lose.
Limit orders are your friend.
Many people are expecting a drop to $10-14K. Bitcoin might find support above those levels OR it might find support below. I have included possible buy levels on the chart (in turquoise) at 17.7K, 16.6K, 14.3K, 12.5K, 9.4K, and 5.7K. Given a drop below 2.7K (in orange), it would be safe to assume in my mind that Bitcoin is in an extended bear market at least until the Federal Reserve pivots to a more dovish stance.
Nothing is a guarantee, but as it stands - the market is not on the side of Bitcoin.
"No cash on me girl, I only pay with circles" ~Deaton Chris Anthony
Happy trading (and investing), everyone!
Bitcoin has been struggling as of late behind a harsh economic backdrop.
Historically, Bitcoin has not performed well in September and I don't see 2022 being an exception.
From the previous all time high of Bitcoin in November 2021, it is down upwards of 70%. Looking at bear markets historically, hitting the 85% mark would indicate the end of the bear market in the range of $10-14K. Let's look at some important pieces of information to keep in mind over the coming days, weeks and months.
Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates tomorrow (9/21) by either 75 or 100 basis points. Given that the S&P 500 is holding below resistance, markets are prepared to either push above or fall below. Bitcoin is in a very similar situation.
The Federal Reserve has expressed that their primary goal is to get inflation under control. With consumer inflation dropping slightly, and core inflation increasing slightly, I am personally expecting a 100 point hike.
Bitcoin dropping below the 0.618 Fibonacci circle would be exceptionally bearish, finding temporary support at the 0.5 Fibonacci circle.
Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment
There is an abundance of fear in the market. Anticipation of doom, with Bitcoin reaching levels of 10K, 9K,
4K, even 2K. These levels are possible, especially since this is the first recession Bitcoin has been a part of.Assuming an (unlikely) pivot from the Federal Reserve, this doom sentiment may indicate a (temporary) double bottom on BTC. Historically it is rare to see the cryptocurrency fear and greed go below 10, which we have already seen during this bear market.
My Takeaways
Never invest more than you are willing to lose.
Limit orders are your friend.
Many people are expecting a drop to $10-14K. Bitcoin might find support above those levels OR it might find support below. I have included possible buy levels on the chart (in turquoise) at 17.7K, 16.6K, 14.3K, 12.5K, 9.4K, and 5.7K. Given a drop below 2.7K (in orange), it would be safe to assume in my mind that Bitcoin is in an extended bear market at least until the Federal Reserve pivots to a more dovish stance.
Nothing is a guarantee, but as it stands - the market is not on the side of Bitcoin.
"No cash on me girl, I only pay with circles" ~Deaton Chris Anthony
Happy trading (and investing), everyone!
Note
75 point rate hike.Fibonacci circle holding. Will be watching for daily or 4 hour candle close below the 0.618 rung.
SPX crushed by resistance level.
Disclaimer
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