12/08/24 Weekly outlook
Last weeks high: $62,761.55
Last weeks low: 49,017.27
Midpoint: $55,889.41
Quite the week in crypto just gone. From our first sub $50,000 BTC since mid February thanks to the JPY rate hike, a single day decline of -16% on Monday to then a strong recovery of +28%, a lot of volatility.
The two peaks for the week coincide with the 4H 200EMA resistance level, which is a problem for the bulls as now that the final hours of Sunday trading dipped price below the 1D 200EMA, Bitcoin has a difficult week ahead to break back above those moving averages.
A big news event week coming up could continue the high volatility we've seen in recent weeks:
- US PPI 13th
- US & UK CPI 14th
- JPY & UK GDP 15th
For this week I will be looking closely at the news events that could cause volatility and perhaps give a sign of trend direction going into the September FED rate cut.
Last weeks low: 49,017.27
Midpoint: $55,889.41
Quite the week in crypto just gone. From our first sub $50,000 BTC since mid February thanks to the JPY rate hike, a single day decline of -16% on Monday to then a strong recovery of +28%, a lot of volatility.
The two peaks for the week coincide with the 4H 200EMA resistance level, which is a problem for the bulls as now that the final hours of Sunday trading dipped price below the 1D 200EMA, Bitcoin has a difficult week ahead to break back above those moving averages.
A big news event week coming up could continue the high volatility we've seen in recent weeks:
- US PPI 13th
- US & UK CPI 14th
- JPY & UK GDP 15th
For this week I will be looking closely at the news events that could cause volatility and perhaps give a sign of trend direction going into the September FED rate cut.
Note
Positive start for the week, now above the 1D 200EMA and looking strong.
The 4H 200EMA lays at the $62,000 level now, just below range high so that should be the next point of contention for the bulls.
Note
So after a positive PPI & CPI BTC is back at the 4H 200EMA resistance level.
BTC needs to push past this very important level and it's having a hard time doing so.
Tether minted 11B yesterday and rate cuts are coming next month, something is holding BTC down currently but if it breaks free it should push higher fast. Patience is key here.
Note
A mostly down week for BTC & crypto as a whole despite the positive PPI & CPI outcomes. A strange feeling of limbo right now and I can see that continuing going into September.
I believe most people are of the thinking that post September rate cut we will begin seeing markets move up and begin the next stage of the Bullrun. I believe this too in a lot of ways however I think market makers will have a few tricks up their sleeves first.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see some continuation of this painful chop with a few fakeouts thrown in to shake out the remaining weak hands. The time capitulation we've been witnessing can destroy peoples confidence and account leaving them sidelined when the real move begins.
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