Why BTC Dumped this much ?
Updated
Is it over!
Are we going to zero ?
you knew it since first day, it was all ponzi !
its over and you should back to McDonald's !!
but you remember you last words to your boss so its impossible to even back there too !!!
wait , wait a second...
I love when Bears and retails become all drama queens
lets see what did just happened to market and why you should load the dip now (wait whaaat!)
btc pumped 100% less than in a year (Did you checked my last btc analysis the "The wolf enters the henhouse" one) and we just had 25% correction which is ok in bull markets
but lets see what leads to this ruthless corrections
we had almost five times rejection at 71-72k level which is bearish signal and means no one like to load more btc at those levels
MtGox was one of the worst hacks that happened in crypto history and each cycle we got fud news that they will repaying peoples money but this time they really doing it! (If you were one of those early birds you are kinda of lucky after all, I bet you would sell millions of times your bitcoins! at least Mark Karpelès knows how to HODL )
couple of days ago MtGox issued an official announcement stating that relevant preparations have been completed and that it will begin repaying creditors in BTC and BCH in early July 2024. To ensure compliance, relevant technical and financial regulatory measures have been implemented. The repayment will be completed with the cryptocurrency exchange to complete the necessary transactions and verifications, and the specific implementation details will take some time to wait
and several users said that their Bitbank received BTC/BCH, and the amount received was exactly the same as the amount shown in the Mt Gox table. Today, MtGox transferred 1,544.67 BTC (about 84.87m) to the hot wallet of the Japanese exchange Bitbank
many Govs holding btc these days just FYI the US government holds crypto assets worth about $15 billion, including 212.847k BTC and 45.654k ETH; the British government holds 61.245k BTC, worth about $4.34 billion; the German government holds 49.859k BTC, worth about $3.53 billion
and during the corrections all of a sudden the German Government transferred 547.44 BTC to the market and start selling like newbie paper hands. Currently, it is shown that the German Government address still has about 41k BTC, worth about $2.27 billion so buckle up!
all in all the German government, the US government, and Mt. Gox have transferred a total of 17,788 BTC ($1.08 billion) since June 19. The German government has transferred BTC every day since July 1. They currently hold a total of 396,210 BTC ($22.78 billion), including: the German government, 41,226 BTC ($2.28 billion), the US government, 213,297 BTC ($11.72 billion), and MtGox, 141,687 BTC ($7.78 billion)
one thing this cycle changed and its WallStreet & ETFs which probably we will see new patterns this time
50-52k is super important support for BTC and there will be small chance for bears and govs to hit and break that level in middle of bull market. I start DCA at these levels so don't trip, buy the dip!
Are we going to zero ?
you knew it since first day, it was all ponzi !
its over and you should back to McDonald's !!
but you remember you last words to your boss so its impossible to even back there too !!!
wait , wait a second...
I love when Bears and retails become all drama queens
lets see what did just happened to market and why you should load the dip now (wait whaaat!)
btc pumped 100% less than in a year (Did you checked my last btc analysis the "The wolf enters the henhouse" one) and we just had 25% correction which is ok in bull markets
but lets see what leads to this ruthless corrections
we had almost five times rejection at 71-72k level which is bearish signal and means no one like to load more btc at those levels
MtGox was one of the worst hacks that happened in crypto history and each cycle we got fud news that they will repaying peoples money but this time they really doing it! (If you were one of those early birds you are kinda of lucky after all, I bet you would sell millions of times your bitcoins! at least Mark Karpelès knows how to HODL )
couple of days ago MtGox issued an official announcement stating that relevant preparations have been completed and that it will begin repaying creditors in BTC and BCH in early July 2024. To ensure compliance, relevant technical and financial regulatory measures have been implemented. The repayment will be completed with the cryptocurrency exchange to complete the necessary transactions and verifications, and the specific implementation details will take some time to wait
and several users said that their Bitbank received BTC/BCH, and the amount received was exactly the same as the amount shown in the Mt Gox table. Today, MtGox transferred 1,544.67 BTC (about 84.87m) to the hot wallet of the Japanese exchange Bitbank
many Govs holding btc these days just FYI the US government holds crypto assets worth about $15 billion, including 212.847k BTC and 45.654k ETH; the British government holds 61.245k BTC, worth about $4.34 billion; the German government holds 49.859k BTC, worth about $3.53 billion
and during the corrections all of a sudden the German Government transferred 547.44 BTC to the market and start selling like newbie paper hands. Currently, it is shown that the German Government address still has about 41k BTC, worth about $2.27 billion so buckle up!
all in all the German government, the US government, and Mt. Gox have transferred a total of 17,788 BTC ($1.08 billion) since June 19. The German government has transferred BTC every day since July 1. They currently hold a total of 396,210 BTC ($22.78 billion), including: the German government, 41,226 BTC ($2.28 billion), the US government, 213,297 BTC ($11.72 billion), and MtGox, 141,687 BTC ($7.78 billion)
one thing this cycle changed and its WallStreet & ETFs which probably we will see new patterns this time
50-52k is super important support for BTC and there will be small chance for bears and govs to hit and break that level in middle of bull market. I start DCA at these levels so don't trip, buy the dip!
Note
US jobs data showed downward revisions for both the April and May numbers. This confirms Powell's disinflationary path and potentially earlier rate cuts with both September and December starting to price a higher probability.Note
Government Bitcoin selling is overestimated. 224B has flowed into this market since 2023. Government-seized BTC contributes about 99B to the realized cap. It's only 4% of the total cumulative realized value since 2023. The realized cap represents the total capital that has entered the market.Note
the German Government transferred a total of 500 BTC to Bitstamp and Coinbase (250 BTC each), worth about $27.9 million, at 14:48 UTC+8 today, and transferred 500 BTC to an unmarked address: 139PoP…H7ybVu, worth about $27.9 million, which may be a deposit address of an institution or OTC serviceNote
The U.S. announced that the unadjusted core CPI annual rate in June was 3.3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%, falling to the lowest level since April 2021. The seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate in June was 0.1%, the lowest level since August 2021, and the market expectation was 0.2%.Note
German Goverment transferred 752.166 BTC to Flow Traders at 2:12 UTC+8 today and 3,094 BTC to the suspected B2C2 Group. Currently, German Goverment has no BTC positions, and all BTC have been transferred to CEX or market makers. The German government’s 49,800 BTC took 24 days to clear. They started selling on June 19, totaling 49,858.7 BTC, with an average transfer price of about $58,480, and recovered funds of about $2.915 billion.Note
$ 10 Trillion BlackRock CEO Larry Fink just says he was wrong about BitcoinTrade active
Note
German law enforcement have made it official: The emergency sale of nearly 50,000 Bitcoin is over and netted the agencies an "unprecedented" $2.88 billion. The office added in the release that the Bitcoin price and market conditions were irrelevant in its decision, the goal was to carry out the sale "as quickly as possible."Note
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said that currently, the spot Bitcoin ETF listed in the United States holds 900,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4.3% of the total supply of Bitcoin. The assets are about 60 billion US dollars. Since its launch in January, the net inflow of funds has been 17 billion US dollarsNote
The US government transferred 58.742 BTC to Coinbase PrimeNote
Bitstamp: We've received the Mt. Gox assets. We're working diligently to distribute them to our Bitstamp customers who are Mt. Gox creditors. Please allow up to one week for security checks. For UK residents, there will be a separate distribution plan. We'll inform you when the transfer is finalized.Trade active
Note
Last week (July 22 to July 26), Bitcoin spot ETFs received an inflow of $535 million, Grayscale ETF GBTC had a weekly net outflow of $120 million, BlackRock ETF IBIT had a weekly net inflow of $758 million, Fidelity ETF FBTC had a weekly net inflow of $29.61 million, and the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $62.095 billion.Note
Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $124 million on July 29, and continued to have net inflow for 4 consecutive days. Grayscale ETF GBTC had a single-day outflow of $54.2931 million, and BlackRock ETF IBIT had an inflow of $206 million. The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETF is $61.732 billionNote
The US national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, sparking fears about the sustainability of fiat currencies.Note
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is assassinated in Iran by an alleged Israeli strike, threatening escalation and it can effect BTC price as wellNote
No explicit signal of a September rate cut, but there were notable changes in the Fed's statement. The Fed didn't make any concrete promises but left the door wide open for a potential rate cut in SeptemberNote
Aug. 2 Options Data 37,000 BTC options are expiring with a Put Call Ratio of 0.58, Maxpain point of $66,000 and notional value of $2.4 billion.
180,000 ETH options are expiring with a Put Call Ratio of 0.55, Maxpain point of $3,300 and notional value of $600 million.
US stocks have been underperforming recently, and there is no positive enough to support the market in August yet, the market may have to wait for another month or two
Note
Iranian media reports, in coming hours, the world will witness extraordinary scenes and very important developmentsNote
be ready for WW3 fudNote
Russian military planes were sent to Iran, Tehran is expected to attack Israel soonNote
US officials expect Iran could attack as early as tomorrowNote
Amid the decline, nearly 353M of positions were liquidated on the leading futures exchanges:- 139M on Binance
- 99M on OKX
- 60M on HTX
- 24M on Bybit
-
18M on BitMEX Liquidations of long positions significantly outpaced liquidations of short positions:
🟢 315M (89.2% Long)
🔴 38M (10.8% Short)
Trade active
Note
Robinhood halts 24 hour tradingNote
the core reason for the sharp pullback in risk assets led by US tech stocks is the aggressive interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which caused many yen carry trade paths to fail or face significant risks, specifically in three areas: exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate reversals, and liquidity risksNote
Donald Trump said in an interview with Adin Ross Live that the US government should not sell its cryptocurrency holdings. He called cryptocurrency a very modern currency and compared it to artificial intelligence, arguing that if the United States does not actively participate, China and other countries will dominate.Note
The current market is reacting sensitively to the release of U.S. economic data. And While various news outlets report on the possibility of an Iran-Israel warit may be wise to avoid taking risky leveraged positions.Note
Russia's State Duma approved two bills legalizing crypto mining, set to take effect on Nov 1, 2024.Trade active
Israel attacks southern Lebanon, Hezbollah launches rockets at Israel
Trade active
Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $274 million on October 18, continuing its net inflow for 6 consecutive days. Ark Invest and 21Shares' ETF ARKB had an inflow of $110 million, and BlackRock ETF IBIT had an inflow of $70.4111 million. Ethereum spot ETF had an inflow of $1.9 millionTrade active
BlackRock’s 
IBIT bought $292 million worth of #Bitcoin yesterday.Trade active
Miners Are Betting on a Bitcoin Price Rise
Looking at the MPI (Miner Position Index), miners are still holding Bitcoin in their wallets, with no significant movements toward exchanges for selling. Historically, when the MPI rebounded from a low, Bitcoin’s price tended to experience significant increases
Trade active
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "we're going to have at least" another 25bps interest rate cut this yearTrade active
from 0.1% to 0.2%. PCE inflation index has seen the largest monthly increase since April, supporting the Fed's slowing pace of interest rate cuts after a sharp cut last month.Trade active
Last week, from October 28 to November 1, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $2.22 billion, the third largest weekly net inflow in history. BlackRock ETF IBIT had a weekly net inflow of $2.15 billion. Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $13 million last week.Trade active
In October, Bitcoin outperformed major cryptocurrencies and asset classes, with its market dominance surpassing 60% due to substantial ETP inflows.
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