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BITCOIN, ETF, SEC & BLACKROCK 🟠

Updated

Its now obvious that the acceptance of a spot Bitcoin ETF is one of the eagerly anticipated catalysts for Bitcoin in the lead up to the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Asset managers like Fidelity have been waiting for the SEC's approval for their spot in the Bitcoin ETF for more than a year. The application submitted in June by BlackRock which is the largest asset manager in the world, to have its spot Bitcoin ETF approved, raised expectations that it would be successful and brought attention to the topic of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Crypto asset manager Grayscale scored a popular victory against the SEC in August, when the court ruled against the SEC's decision to outrightly reject Grayscale's application to convert the largest Bitcoin trust fund, GBTC, into a spot Bitcoin ETF. The SEC was given till midnight on October 13 to appeal the court order or review Grayscale's application

The applicants for spot ETFs have come a long way in resolving the SEC's concerns about such ETFs. A number of applicants such as Fidelity, BlackRock, and Invesco, have just submitted an updated prospectus that offers thorough details on important facets of their spot ETF product, such as the adoption of effective market surveillance mechanisms, improving the safety of assets under management, and utilizing GAAP-compliant reporting mechanisms.

BlackRock has amended its spot Bitcoin ETF application. By emphasizing its custody agreements with Coinbase, the risks associated with Bitcoin's volatility, and the intricacies surrounding Bitcoin's value, BlackRock responds to some of the SEC's concerns in this amended application. BlackRock stated that it will calculate fair value and create the trust's monthly financial statements in accordance with FASB ASC 820. Fidelity filed an updated ETF app five days ago

last Monday the misleading tweet from Cointelegraph claimed the approval of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF immediately spread throughout the crypto community and caused a huge increase in Bitcoin's price, which peaked at 30k dollar. The market's response to this fake report shows how eager and anticipatory people and traders are to learn whether a spot Bitcoin ETF will eventually be approved. Since then, Cointelegraph has apologized for the false information after 100 million dollar manipulation! While this incident was an isolated case of misinformation,it highlights the potential impact that a genuine ETF approval could have.

since then bitcoin got the bullish sentiment and bulls ready to hit 31k and 32k $

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watch 32k

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we hit all targets

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data show that the total net positive inflow of the seven spot BTC ETFs is $400 million, of which FBTC has a net inflow of $227 million, IBIT has a net inflow of $112 million, EZBC has a net inflow of $50.1 million, and HODL has a net inflow of $10.6 million.

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on February 28, the daily trading volume of GBTC and nine other new spot Bitcoin ETFs was close to $8 billion, setting a record high, of which BlackRock IBIT’s trading volume reached $3.346 billion, FBTC trading volume reached US$1.444 billion, both setting new records

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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF now holds more BTC than MicroStrategy.

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Why is the Bitcoin price recovering?

1. Three days ago, when the Bitcoin price was at 65.5k, I informed you about the possibility that the price correction may be over because huge profits were realized, amounting to 2.7B.

2. On the other hand, the selling pressure weakened because short-term holders have stopped realizing losses on the price correction.

3. New USDT has been minted and as you can see, there is a strong correlation between the market cap of USDT and the price of Bitcoin.

4. Additionally, we can see huge BTC inflows to the accumulation addresses, and their reserves hit an all-time high.

5. There is one more important change in long-term investors' behavior.
Distribution is weakening

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we are in rekt retail phase
dont do degen high leverage trade

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Bitcoin's fourth mining-reward halving is just two days away. The quadrennial event will reduce BTC's per block emission to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. Though bulls were in the driver's seat following each of the three halvings, the magnitude and the time taken to reach the eventual peak differed

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Given that the market's current structure remains bullish and that the end of the low volatility period could be followed by a strong price movement, it can be concluded that the market is in the process of forming a new bullish trend

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MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 11,931 BTC for ablut 786.0M using proceeds from convertible notes & excess cash for about $65,883 per bitcoin. As of 6/20/24, MSTR hodls 226,331 BTC acquired for about 8.33B at average price of $36,798 per bitcoin

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US and Germany governments are selling BTC. This creating fear of potential sell pressure in the market.

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Bitcoin chart with a reaccumulation wyckoff pattern

The current Bitcoin price chart matches the Wyckoff reaccumulation phase, with a consolidation range evident from recent price movements.

Key features include price bouncing between horizontal support (around 57,178) and resistance (around 71,587), indicating sideways movement typical of reaccumulation.

MVRV Ratio: Is 1.97, indicating the market is still above the realized price and hence in a relatively overvalued state.

Market participants have significant unrealized profits, typical of a distribution or early markdown phase. In my opinion, this alright for the reaccumulation phase. For the accumulation phase, we would want much lower mvrv values.

Exchange Inflow & Outflow: The current trend show decreasing inflow and outflow volumes.

Decreasing exchange reserves suggests accumulation as BTC moves off exchanges. This is consistent with the reaccumulation phase.

aSOPR: Hovering around 1.0. which means the market is balanced between profits taken and losses incurred, consistent with a reaccumulation phase where neither buyers nor sellers dominate.

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Mt. Gox has begun repaying BTC and BCH to creditors.

The collapsed exchange has started debt repayments to creditors via select crypto exchanges, following the Rehabilitation Plan.

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On July 9, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $216 million. Grayscale ETF GBTC had a single-day outflow of $37.4956 million. BlackRock ETF IBIT had a single-day net inflow of $121 million. Fidelity ETF FBTC had a single-day net inflow of $90.9503 million.

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German Goverment started selling coins on July 12. At 15:02 UTC+8, it transferred a total of 1,200 BTC to Bitstamp, Kraken and Coinbase (400 BTC each), transferred 1,000 BTC to the suspected B2C2 Group: 139PoP…H7ybVu, transferred 500 BTC to the unmarked address: bc1qu3…guzr4j.

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Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey said that he had just communicated with Donald Trump's team and Donald Trump is still committed to delivering his speech in-person at Bitcoin 2024. The Bitcoin 2024 conference will be held in NASHVILLE TN on JULY 25-27, 2024

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Mt Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi announced that on July 16, 2024, BTC and BCH were repaid to some creditors through designated cryptocurrency trading platforms. Currently, the trustee has repaid BTC and BCH to more than 13,000 creditors. Once the conditions are met, other creditors will be repaid immediately

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Meme Coins, RWA, and AI were the most popular narratives in 2024 Q2, capturing 35.7% of market share. This was similar to 2024 Q1. Solana and Base were the most popular ecosystems, capturing 22.9% share of market attention.

107,725 ETH were burned, while 228,543 were emitted in 2024 Q2, making the network inflationary during the past quarter. This led to a total of 120,818 ETH being added to the supply in Q2. The burn rate of ETH fell -66.7% Quarter-on-Quarter as network activity slowed and gas fees fell. There were only 7 days in Q2 in which ETH burns exceeded emissions. In comparison, this figure stood at 66 days in Q1

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26 July Options Data
61,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.62, a max pain of $63,500 and a notional value of $4.1 billion.
490,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.45, a max pain of $3,350 and a notional value of $1.6 billion.
All of the major term IVs have rebounded significantly, with short-term term IVs rebounding particularly notably, generally by 10% or more compared to a week ago.

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12 minutes ago, the U.S. Government: Silk Road DOJ Confiscated Funds (bc1qj) address transferred 29799.99011436 BTC, worth about $2.02 billion.

The U.S. government currently holds 69,000 bitcoins that once belonged to Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and 50,676 bitcoins from Silk Road by Zhong.

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Federal Reserve holds interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% amid signs of inflation easing; maintains cautious tone on future cuts as they progress toward a 2% target.

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The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.3% in July, which was expected to be 4.10% and the previous value was 4.10%. The U.S. unemployment rate in July was the highest since October 2021. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in July were 114,000, the smallest increase since April 2024.

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The volume of Bitcoin moved by whales from exchanges has reached a 9-year high, with 84,000 BTC added by these large holders in July alone.

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The volatility index has experienced its third-largest spike in history, trailing only the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID19 pandemic

also Biden's economic advisor Gene Sperling steps down.

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The short-term holder whale realized price is in the 64K-65K range. This level may present itself as a resistance

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CME Group has announced that it will launch Bitcoin Friday futures (BFF) on September 30, 2024. It offers a precise and flexible way to trade bitcoin exposure. Each BFF contract represents 1/50 of a bitcoin, ensuring capital efficiency and accessibility. These shorter-dated contracts expire to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York Variant every Friday at 4:00 p.m. ET

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On September 9, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of 28.7196m. Grayscale ETF GBTC had an outflow of 22.76m, and Fidelity ETF FBTC had an inflow of 28.5954m. Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of 5.198m, and continued to have a net outflow for 5 days. Grayscale ETF ETHE had an outflow of 22.6426m

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Coinbase Research: The correlation between crypto and stock markets has been high lately, near 50%, driven by global easing campaigns in the US and China. Gaming, Scaling Solutions, and Layer-0 were some of the best performing sectors. Overall, key metrics indicate a robust market. The market is well positioned to head into what is typically a good month for crypto with BTC up 8 of the last 10 Octobers.

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BlackRock: Bitcoin is "Risk Off", a Global Monetary Alternative, a global, decentralized, and non-sovereign asset that could serve as a hedge against increasing global disorder and declining trust in governments, banks, and fiat currencies; Ethereum is "Risk On", a "Bet on Blockchain Adoption", a core infrastructure that underpins a diverse range of blockchain-based applications and is crucial to the continued adoption and integration of blockchain technology.

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- BTC rallied from 62k to 65k as almost 80m of BTC and ETH leveraged shorts got liquidated. Some may attribute today's rally to Mt. Gox postponing it's repayment deadline to Oct 2025 but that news was out on Friday.

- Although there could be many factors that could explain today's move, it is quite an interesting time if we look at historical price action. We are in the middle of October and just three weeks away from the US elections.

- If we look back to 2016, BTC was trading in a very tight range for more than 3 months. It wasn't until three weeks before US Election day that BTC began it's rally from 600 and finally doubling it's price by the first week of January.

- Similarly in 2020, BTC was stuck in a boring range for half a year and only started rallying from 11k just three weeks before US Election day, reaching a high of 42k by January.

- Uptober has been rather disappointing so far with BTC up just +1.2% vs an average of +21%. After months of trading in the range, will history repeat itself? Today's rally has definitely given the market a glimmer of hope just as Uptober optimism was fading.

2 days ago

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BlackRock IBIT had just seen its largest trading volume ever, with a trading volume of $4.1 billion, which is larger than the trading volume of stocks such as Berkshire, Netflix or Visa today.

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