BTC FLAT
Hello Everyone,
In August, I was already evaluating the possibility of a Zig-Zag correction for the 4th primary wave of Bitcoin. However, as things started to heat up and BTC broke above the 60k level, I abandoned the idea. However, back then, I failed to evaluate the possibility of a flat correction. This makes much more sense considering the alternation rule of corrections in Elliott Wave principles. This rule state that if wave 2 of a correction was a Zig-Zag (Check 2019 correction), then wave 4 of the cycle will be either a Flat, Triangle or complex (Double three, Triple three). It was then logical to discard the Zig Zag idea for this correction and embrace either a Flat, Triangle or complex correction. Considering that the possibility of a triangle has nearly failed with the break below the 50 week MA at 46k, I then moved to the idea that we are into a Flat formation. There is to say that the most common correction for wave 4 is usually a triangle. However, I believe the probability of this has now narrowed down considerably. The only possibility of a triangle here is a rising triangle. These are some of the rarest formations and usually, happen when the fundamentals and sentiments are so strong that the asset barely retrace. In my opinion, in the current financial situation, although the fundamentals of BTC are strong, the monetary policy, recession, inflation at its highest after four decades and interest rates hikes for 2022, I believe the flat formation is way more logical.
If you look at the chart, I tried to show you visually the three different types of Flat formations and why I believe the regular flat is most likely. Many are hoping in the running flat. However, this is the rarest of the flat formations and similarly to the rising triangle due to high momentum wave B finishing well above the start of wave A and wave C end into the price action of wave B well above the end of wave A. Now wave B wasn't a great higher high well above A, but a fake-out that fully agree with the idea of a regular flat.
In a regular flat wave, C is made of 5 waves and is usually a painful wave for the market participants. It usually retraces up until the end of wave A, and it usually finishes at 123% or 138% of the projection of wave A.
Considering this, I expect wave C to end at around 29k. This also agrees with the Elliott Wave channel lower boundary, which I have drawn previously in other ideas.
I can be wrong, and this correction unfolds in a complex correction with the first ABC being a ZIG ZAG, the second a ZIG ZAG, and now forming a small triangle. Nevertheless, rest assured that after this correction, BTC will hit my targets of 185K. The timeline has just been delayed.
I would love to hear your ideas, so please feel free to comment below.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT.
In August, I was already evaluating the possibility of a Zig-Zag correction for the 4th primary wave of Bitcoin. However, as things started to heat up and BTC broke above the 60k level, I abandoned the idea. However, back then, I failed to evaluate the possibility of a flat correction. This makes much more sense considering the alternation rule of corrections in Elliott Wave principles. This rule state that if wave 2 of a correction was a Zig-Zag (Check 2019 correction), then wave 4 of the cycle will be either a Flat, Triangle or complex (Double three, Triple three). It was then logical to discard the Zig Zag idea for this correction and embrace either a Flat, Triangle or complex correction. Considering that the possibility of a triangle has nearly failed with the break below the 50 week MA at 46k, I then moved to the idea that we are into a Flat formation. There is to say that the most common correction for wave 4 is usually a triangle. However, I believe the probability of this has now narrowed down considerably. The only possibility of a triangle here is a rising triangle. These are some of the rarest formations and usually, happen when the fundamentals and sentiments are so strong that the asset barely retrace. In my opinion, in the current financial situation, although the fundamentals of BTC are strong, the monetary policy, recession, inflation at its highest after four decades and interest rates hikes for 2022, I believe the flat formation is way more logical.
If you look at the chart, I tried to show you visually the three different types of Flat formations and why I believe the regular flat is most likely. Many are hoping in the running flat. However, this is the rarest of the flat formations and similarly to the rising triangle due to high momentum wave B finishing well above the start of wave A and wave C end into the price action of wave B well above the end of wave A. Now wave B wasn't a great higher high well above A, but a fake-out that fully agree with the idea of a regular flat.
In a regular flat wave, C is made of 5 waves and is usually a painful wave for the market participants. It usually retraces up until the end of wave A, and it usually finishes at 123% or 138% of the projection of wave A.
Considering this, I expect wave C to end at around 29k. This also agrees with the Elliott Wave channel lower boundary, which I have drawn previously in other ideas.
I can be wrong, and this correction unfolds in a complex correction with the first ABC being a ZIG ZAG, the second a ZIG ZAG, and now forming a small triangle. Nevertheless, rest assured that after this correction, BTC will hit my targets of 185K. The timeline has just been delayed.
I would love to hear your ideas, so please feel free to comment below.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT.
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