BTC - short
Updated
I believe there is a high probability that BTC will go down. This is due to the following factors:
1. The BTC reserves in the exchanges have started increasing which means that there will be higher selling pressure.
2. The future's long interest is very high at the moment which is not a good sign when we are in a downtrend, shown by the channel I have drawn.
3. The interest rates are very likely to rise on the 4th of MAy which is not so good for the availability of money to buy BTC. Expectations of this, cause investors to turn nervous.
4. The value of the dollar is increasing which is bad for S&P.
5. S&P is not performing well at the moment but not as bad as we were expecting it. Many companies have reported good profits.
It seems to me that there will be a drop for the whales to gather liquidity again and shake off weak hands. Nevertheless, I do not think that it will go beyond the trendline I have drawn because of the resistance shown there.
1. Future positions are seen by the market makers and they are using the market conditions to their advantage to grab stop losses.
2. Dollar cost average capital downwards to grab the liquidity of the ones who still are in the future positions.
History has shown that when the open future positions are low, the probability of BTC price rising is higher.
1. The BTC reserves in the exchanges have started increasing which means that there will be higher selling pressure.
2. The future's long interest is very high at the moment which is not a good sign when we are in a downtrend, shown by the channel I have drawn.
3. The interest rates are very likely to rise on the 4th of MAy which is not so good for the availability of money to buy BTC. Expectations of this, cause investors to turn nervous.
4. The value of the dollar is increasing which is bad for S&P.
5. S&P is not performing well at the moment but not as bad as we were expecting it. Many companies have reported good profits.
It seems to me that there will be a drop for the whales to gather liquidity again and shake off weak hands. Nevertheless, I do not think that it will go beyond the trendline I have drawn because of the resistance shown there.
1. Future positions are seen by the market makers and they are using the market conditions to their advantage to grab stop losses.
2. Dollar cost average capital downwards to grab the liquidity of the ones who still are in the future positions.
History has shown that when the open future positions are low, the probability of BTC price rising is higher.
Note
My indicators have started looking better. BTC.D has been growing and may soon breakout. When this happened in the past BTC went up. Future's position is declining which means less money for the exchanges to take away from people. May the 4th is approaching but it will just be a small increase in the interest rates, this is something negative. Nevertheless, nothing too serious has happened until now. BTC will go up or down or consolidate. If it goes down then it will not go a lot more than where the institutions have bought. Tesla for example has bought at 30k and others at higher levels. So the loss maybe 10-20% maximum I think. The other option is to remain at the same level which is neutral. The final one is for BTC to serve its purpose.... a tool to fight inflation. At the moment I would say that I am optimistic for the price of BTC in a month from now.Note
I see a high influx of bitcoins to exchanges, this usually means a higher selling pressure. They are there just in case of bad news so be ready for high volatility in case of negative news. You can manage your risk as you wish. If you are risky you can ride the wave either up or down. Currently BTC is trading at 39k
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