Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr pulled up after a pretty boring day yesterday in terms of price action. Small swings all day not amounting to much. Regardless we are still managing to hold onto 9k for the time being. Call it a miracle or whatever you want but these bulls are extremely stubborn about giving up 9k. I see reasons to be bearish when I look at this chart and I will go over the reasons I feel this way later in this analysis. Lets see what the chart is trying to tell us.
First of all I see resistance mounting on the 4hr. Looking at all the resistance I pointed out it certainly looks like we could not climb over all of it at this time without a miracle. I mean 4 different representations of resistance are blocking us from going up at this time. They are all pretty much sandwiched between 9100 and 9300 which makes crossing this chasm on the chart very daunting. As a result of all of this resistance above us it is very likely that traders will abandon their positions in anticipation of a drop. Of course only time will tell if that will materialize. But at this point the path of least resistance is definitely down. Especially on the 4hr time frame.
Above the candles we have (in this order) the bottom border of the 4hr cloud (@ 9184) then the 4hr 50 MA (@ 9215) then the 4hr 200 MA (@ 9265) and top border of the cloud which happens to merge with the top descending resistance on the triangle we are still stuck inside of. The 2 resistances combined will prove to be even tougher to conquer and they are currently at 9285 approximately. That is a lot of resistance above us. Sure we may be able to conquer that bottom cloud border but Im thinking confidence will be low at this point for traders. Bots will also take note.
Looking for support below in the event we exit this triangle in the next few days I know that 8800 (.236 fib) has proven itself as support time and time again. But the more times we touch it the more likely we will fall through.... On the weekly the weekly cloud and the weekly 50 MA combine to provide support if we do fall that far. Both of these indicators sit around 8600. Below that we have the daily 200 MA (8500 approximately) which we have been above since April. That should provide some support if the weekly cloud and weekly 50 MA should fail us.
We are also approaching the end of the triangle I drew on the chart days ago. These things arent always an indication of a break out but this one seems to be pointing to just that. Many people tend to think break outs are only breaks up but they can go either way. Right now I am thinking we will head down if we cannot hurdle all the resistances I mentioned earlier in this analysis (I wouldnt hold my breath) The bollinger bands on the daily are still very tight and that also points to volatility in the short term future. Like I said earlier, the path of least resistance seems to be down so that is why I am bearish at this time.
I know we all prefer bullish analysis and I wish I had better news to deliver to you. The crypto community as a whole is always more fun during bullish runs on the chart. I guess that is understandable as people tend to enjoy raking in profits. If you are sick of waiting on BTC you can look into some of the alts I analyzed recently. But if you are going to play with alts make sure you have a plan. Liquidity is generally lacking in many alt markets and as a result one well placed sell can erase all the profit you worked so hard to obtain. Its happened to me numerous times. That is one reason why I stopped messing with alts so much but now they have caught my interest again. Gotta follow that money. I will likely only touch the top 50 alts (except a few like maybe 1UP from the social media site Uptrennd) They have been on fire lately and I expect a lot of good things from the coin and the platform. If you are going to mess with alts you need to be even more careful folks. You are literally playing with fire. But then again WTFDIK?????
TLDR: We may lose 9k by Sunday I am guessing. Only time will tell. Resistance is mounting above us. It is literally stacked. Climbing over the chasm of resistance will not be easy. From 9200 - 9400 there are 4-5 solid areas of resistance above us and not much holding the candles up. Bring an umbrella...
First of all I see resistance mounting on the 4hr. Looking at all the resistance I pointed out it certainly looks like we could not climb over all of it at this time without a miracle. I mean 4 different representations of resistance are blocking us from going up at this time. They are all pretty much sandwiched between 9100 and 9300 which makes crossing this chasm on the chart very daunting. As a result of all of this resistance above us it is very likely that traders will abandon their positions in anticipation of a drop. Of course only time will tell if that will materialize. But at this point the path of least resistance is definitely down. Especially on the 4hr time frame.
Above the candles we have (in this order) the bottom border of the 4hr cloud (@ 9184) then the 4hr 50 MA (@ 9215) then the 4hr 200 MA (@ 9265) and top border of the cloud which happens to merge with the top descending resistance on the triangle we are still stuck inside of. The 2 resistances combined will prove to be even tougher to conquer and they are currently at 9285 approximately. That is a lot of resistance above us. Sure we may be able to conquer that bottom cloud border but Im thinking confidence will be low at this point for traders. Bots will also take note.
Looking for support below in the event we exit this triangle in the next few days I know that 8800 (.236 fib) has proven itself as support time and time again. But the more times we touch it the more likely we will fall through.... On the weekly the weekly cloud and the weekly 50 MA combine to provide support if we do fall that far. Both of these indicators sit around 8600. Below that we have the daily 200 MA (8500 approximately) which we have been above since April. That should provide some support if the weekly cloud and weekly 50 MA should fail us.
We are also approaching the end of the triangle I drew on the chart days ago. These things arent always an indication of a break out but this one seems to be pointing to just that. Many people tend to think break outs are only breaks up but they can go either way. Right now I am thinking we will head down if we cannot hurdle all the resistances I mentioned earlier in this analysis (I wouldnt hold my breath) The bollinger bands on the daily are still very tight and that also points to volatility in the short term future. Like I said earlier, the path of least resistance seems to be down so that is why I am bearish at this time.
I know we all prefer bullish analysis and I wish I had better news to deliver to you. The crypto community as a whole is always more fun during bullish runs on the chart. I guess that is understandable as people tend to enjoy raking in profits. If you are sick of waiting on BTC you can look into some of the alts I analyzed recently. But if you are going to play with alts make sure you have a plan. Liquidity is generally lacking in many alt markets and as a result one well placed sell can erase all the profit you worked so hard to obtain. Its happened to me numerous times. That is one reason why I stopped messing with alts so much but now they have caught my interest again. Gotta follow that money. I will likely only touch the top 50 alts (except a few like maybe 1UP from the social media site Uptrennd) They have been on fire lately and I expect a lot of good things from the coin and the platform. If you are going to mess with alts you need to be even more careful folks. You are literally playing with fire. But then again WTFDIK?????
TLDR: We may lose 9k by Sunday I am guessing. Only time will tell. Resistance is mounting above us. It is literally stacked. Climbing over the chasm of resistance will not be easy. From 9200 - 9400 there are 4-5 solid areas of resistance above us and not much holding the candles up. Bring an umbrella...
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.