Bitcoin 4hr analysis 12-7-2020
Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up and as you can see we are still stuck here in consolidation. After a strong weekly close we have 3 weekly closes in a row over 18k. That has never happened in the life of Bitcoin. As we approach 2021 I wonder if market sentiment will change. New US president along with a possible loss of trust in the markets in general. We all know the last 4 years have seen the stock market soar in terms of ATH. But that could change in 2021. Will BTC follow the stock market? I am no expert on the stock market but I give this warning as a caution to my followers. Proceed with caution. Anyways lets take a look at what is going on today.
The triangle I drew on the chart a few days back is still active. We have approached an area where one could say we either break up or break down. The 4hr 50 MA is support currently. It is right below the candles. Currently we are really testing the 4hr 50 MA hard. If it fails there is still an abundance of support in the same general area. 18900 - 19100 there is overwhelming support. But if we do lose the 4hr 50 MA I think we break down. Although its all speculation until it actually occurs. Lucky for us we are still on the top side of all the support. Things still looks great from a bullish standpoint.
As great as things look its time to face the facts. December is a crazy month for Bitcoin. People think about their taxes that are due next year. Some of us have held the Bitcoin for over a year which does help you avoid some of the taxes but many will rob Peter to pay Paul. Meaning they will take Bitcoin from their bag to pay uncle Sam. As much as I DESPISE taxation I must bring this to everyones attention. This will be my 3rd December in the industry and Every December has been surprisingly different. 2017 we spiked to nearly 20k before retreating back to 14k. That retrace was brutal! Next December (2018) was lackluster at best. We were still dipping from the ATH the December before. People were saying BTC would drop to 0 at this time... I almost believed them. Dec 2018 we saw BTC at 3300 dollars. What a difference a year makes huh??? Finally this December. If you look at the monthly candles its nothing really special yet. But its still pretty early in the month. Just proceed with caution at this point folks. The data we collect at this level is crucial to traders but it is still lacking. We have only spent a few weeks above 14k and for that reason data is lacking. TA is not easy at these levels. But it is possible.
2020 has been wild. Bitcoin dropped to 3800 before recovering to nearly 20k. All in the same year. I told all my followers to be unafraid of the dip to 3800. I said we would recover and encouraged you to buy more. Just so you know you would be up 5x nearly if you did buy then. I know hindsight is 20-20 but that was an easy call. We saw the same in 2018. Dip to 3280 and then a rise to 14k 6 months later. Like the great Todd B once said..."When hasnt Bitcoin bounced back?" I can answer with confidence that it has always bounced back. The way Bitcoin was created and the parameters of the coin itself make it rare. Like Gold (closest comparison I can think of) which means it should not really be tied to stocks IMO. Gold typically does well when stocks are in the trash. Bitcoin usually follows the stock market from personal experience. The dip on March 13 of this year saw the stock market almost cut in half and Bitcoin dropped over half. But while both recovered, Bitcoin was the winning investment as it went up 5x since the dip while the stock market (overall) went up only to where it was before the dip.
Bitcoin is an experiment. We are all learning the way the relationship between Bitcoin and investors work. Even though BTC is over 12 years old at this point we still dont have decades of data like we do with the stock market so since data is still lacking it wont be easy to analyze. I still do my best. I thought yesterday we would break from the triangle on the chart but we remain inside at the moment. I am definitely not right 100% of the time but I still have confidence that we could see that break out. But please set a stop loss just in case. There are no noticeable gaps from this weekend. I do see that huge gap from last weekend though. 16600 - 18270 (that a big gap) I think this gap will be filled in the great bear drop. With all the institutions buying into BTC the market seems different that previous pumps. Grayscale and Paypal are scooping up BTC faster than it can be mined. Yes they are even buying mass BTC at nearly 20k. What does that tell you? They think its a profitable endeavor... Supply and demand is a simple concept. Less supply equals more demand which in turn equals higher prices. I have already went on too long so I will end it at that. I hope you all have a great week and make smart choices folks! WTFDIK????
TLDR: "Its Bull season!!!" "NO! Its bear season!" "Wabbit season!" "Duck season!"
The triangle I drew on the chart a few days back is still active. We have approached an area where one could say we either break up or break down. The 4hr 50 MA is support currently. It is right below the candles. Currently we are really testing the 4hr 50 MA hard. If it fails there is still an abundance of support in the same general area. 18900 - 19100 there is overwhelming support. But if we do lose the 4hr 50 MA I think we break down. Although its all speculation until it actually occurs. Lucky for us we are still on the top side of all the support. Things still looks great from a bullish standpoint.
As great as things look its time to face the facts. December is a crazy month for Bitcoin. People think about their taxes that are due next year. Some of us have held the Bitcoin for over a year which does help you avoid some of the taxes but many will rob Peter to pay Paul. Meaning they will take Bitcoin from their bag to pay uncle Sam. As much as I DESPISE taxation I must bring this to everyones attention. This will be my 3rd December in the industry and Every December has been surprisingly different. 2017 we spiked to nearly 20k before retreating back to 14k. That retrace was brutal! Next December (2018) was lackluster at best. We were still dipping from the ATH the December before. People were saying BTC would drop to 0 at this time... I almost believed them. Dec 2018 we saw BTC at 3300 dollars. What a difference a year makes huh??? Finally this December. If you look at the monthly candles its nothing really special yet. But its still pretty early in the month. Just proceed with caution at this point folks. The data we collect at this level is crucial to traders but it is still lacking. We have only spent a few weeks above 14k and for that reason data is lacking. TA is not easy at these levels. But it is possible.
2020 has been wild. Bitcoin dropped to 3800 before recovering to nearly 20k. All in the same year. I told all my followers to be unafraid of the dip to 3800. I said we would recover and encouraged you to buy more. Just so you know you would be up 5x nearly if you did buy then. I know hindsight is 20-20 but that was an easy call. We saw the same in 2018. Dip to 3280 and then a rise to 14k 6 months later. Like the great Todd B once said..."When hasnt Bitcoin bounced back?" I can answer with confidence that it has always bounced back. The way Bitcoin was created and the parameters of the coin itself make it rare. Like Gold (closest comparison I can think of) which means it should not really be tied to stocks IMO. Gold typically does well when stocks are in the trash. Bitcoin usually follows the stock market from personal experience. The dip on March 13 of this year saw the stock market almost cut in half and Bitcoin dropped over half. But while both recovered, Bitcoin was the winning investment as it went up 5x since the dip while the stock market (overall) went up only to where it was before the dip.
Bitcoin is an experiment. We are all learning the way the relationship between Bitcoin and investors work. Even though BTC is over 12 years old at this point we still dont have decades of data like we do with the stock market so since data is still lacking it wont be easy to analyze. I still do my best. I thought yesterday we would break from the triangle on the chart but we remain inside at the moment. I am definitely not right 100% of the time but I still have confidence that we could see that break out. But please set a stop loss just in case. There are no noticeable gaps from this weekend. I do see that huge gap from last weekend though. 16600 - 18270 (that a big gap) I think this gap will be filled in the great bear drop. With all the institutions buying into BTC the market seems different that previous pumps. Grayscale and Paypal are scooping up BTC faster than it can be mined. Yes they are even buying mass BTC at nearly 20k. What does that tell you? They think its a profitable endeavor... Supply and demand is a simple concept. Less supply equals more demand which in turn equals higher prices. I have already went on too long so I will end it at that. I hope you all have a great week and make smart choices folks! WTFDIK????
TLDR: "Its Bull season!!!" "NO! Its bear season!" "Wabbit season!" "Duck season!"
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