Bitcoin playing ping pong with spring-loaded paddles
Updated
Largest time frame candles look bullish. Hammer time on the monthly and long green on the weekly which closed above previous weekly resistance. This denotes immediate further upside.
We also closed above the 21 ema on this weekly, with increasing volume on the second week. We could very easily test the 200 daily MA at $44,700 and I am weighing that as the most likely scenario right now.
I did want a 24k bitcoin and stronger volume at the bottom but it's looking more and more likely that institutions are now driving this market up via Wyckoff accumulation, that the spring was at 29.4k and that we are now in the markup phase. Even from an Elliott wave perspective the sheer strength of this move upward seems more like the start of a new 5-wave structure than a B wave of a larger ABC correction. That being said I am not ruling anything out yet. The month of August may provide the greatest surprises of the entire year.
Purple dotted line is the bottom of the multiple htf resistance zone.
The blue dotted lines are CME gaps.
The pink arrow represents a possible path for bitcoin after calculating all factors mentioned here.
From a CME futures perspective, there is now a gap below to fill at $32,270 as well as a gap above at $49,200. This may lead to some interesting price action if they can somehow still drive the price down that low. The biggest catalyst toward moving things back in that direction would be a post-Eth fork sell-off; after the last Eth fork however bitcoin experienced a sell-off (from the absolute high, no less) and afterward Eth exploded while btc ranged, so take that bit of historical data for what it is worth.
There is also another CME gap at $23,685. Some of my previous ideas projected us breaking down at some point and bouncing from that level as the absolute low. I have not abandoned that scenario entirely, but after the triple bottom spring on relatively low volume and subsequent heavy markup chances of that seem low.
With how this is playing out everything feels uncertain.
After falling back down to previous weekly resistance and testing it as support, I'm long on bitcoin at the moment and hoping for a jump to 45k next. I will be looking to open a short around that level, or regardless of where we are in a day or two. The reason being the release date of the Eth fork, with historical data showing that this may lead to a short-term sell-off.
We may also kick off another massive alt season if btc ranges while Eth climbs.
An overheated alt market however could also drag bitcoin down again, perhaps even breaking the triple bottom this time and dipping all the way into the low 20s. Also with greater talks of regulation making its way through the American legislature that could be the catalyst that drives bitcoin way back down toward the bottom of the falling wedge structure as indicated by my previous idea.
We could also have a much lighter retracement before going higher. If bitcoin starts ricocheting around in a tightening range up here above the previous range box, we are almost certainly preparing to make a play at the all-time high. We will probably have time to figure out the bullish case however as it likely would be a slower squeeze in this range lasting several weeks before the next lift-off.
Again, everything is uncertain but if we take into account lots of factors and keep leverage reasonable then perhaps we will walk away from this with some hefty profits.
My current probable course of action is based on historical data, and is to wait for one more jump in bitcoin in the very near-term; sell my btc and possibly open a short on the eth fork release date; then close my short at a support zone, jump into Eth and/or start looking for the best alt setups to enter into for the next 3 months or so.
What does your current crypto strategy look like?
We also closed above the 21 ema on this weekly, with increasing volume on the second week. We could very easily test the 200 daily MA at $44,700 and I am weighing that as the most likely scenario right now.
I did want a 24k bitcoin and stronger volume at the bottom but it's looking more and more likely that institutions are now driving this market up via Wyckoff accumulation, that the spring was at 29.4k and that we are now in the markup phase. Even from an Elliott wave perspective the sheer strength of this move upward seems more like the start of a new 5-wave structure than a B wave of a larger ABC correction. That being said I am not ruling anything out yet. The month of August may provide the greatest surprises of the entire year.
Purple dotted line is the bottom of the multiple htf resistance zone.
The blue dotted lines are CME gaps.
The pink arrow represents a possible path for bitcoin after calculating all factors mentioned here.
From a CME futures perspective, there is now a gap below to fill at $32,270 as well as a gap above at $49,200. This may lead to some interesting price action if they can somehow still drive the price down that low. The biggest catalyst toward moving things back in that direction would be a post-Eth fork sell-off; after the last Eth fork however bitcoin experienced a sell-off (from the absolute high, no less) and afterward Eth exploded while btc ranged, so take that bit of historical data for what it is worth.
There is also another CME gap at $23,685. Some of my previous ideas projected us breaking down at some point and bouncing from that level as the absolute low. I have not abandoned that scenario entirely, but after the triple bottom spring on relatively low volume and subsequent heavy markup chances of that seem low.
With how this is playing out everything feels uncertain.
After falling back down to previous weekly resistance and testing it as support, I'm long on bitcoin at the moment and hoping for a jump to 45k next. I will be looking to open a short around that level, or regardless of where we are in a day or two. The reason being the release date of the Eth fork, with historical data showing that this may lead to a short-term sell-off.
We may also kick off another massive alt season if btc ranges while Eth climbs.
An overheated alt market however could also drag bitcoin down again, perhaps even breaking the triple bottom this time and dipping all the way into the low 20s. Also with greater talks of regulation making its way through the American legislature that could be the catalyst that drives bitcoin way back down toward the bottom of the falling wedge structure as indicated by my previous idea.
We could also have a much lighter retracement before going higher. If bitcoin starts ricocheting around in a tightening range up here above the previous range box, we are almost certainly preparing to make a play at the all-time high. We will probably have time to figure out the bullish case however as it likely would be a slower squeeze in this range lasting several weeks before the next lift-off.
Again, everything is uncertain but if we take into account lots of factors and keep leverage reasonable then perhaps we will walk away from this with some hefty profits.
My current probable course of action is based on historical data, and is to wait for one more jump in bitcoin in the very near-term; sell my btc and possibly open a short on the eth fork release date; then close my short at a support zone, jump into Eth and/or start looking for the best alt setups to enter into for the next 3 months or so.
What does your current crypto strategy look like?
Trade closed manually
We fell back under the weekly resistance line again. Because we did not get a strong bounce from this range yet, I am closing my long while I still have some profit. With bearish news at the open of this week, lower and lower highs for two days and the Ethereum fork only two more days away, I am opening a short now. Technically we haven't lost the 4hr yet to make a lower swing low but it feels like momentum is shifting.
I hope I am making the right choice here, as the htf candles again read bullish. But I expected some crazy movement to the downside this month so hopefully a massive dump is about to begin.
Order cancelled
On second thought, I'm just going to see what happens. It's possible we get another upside push still even if we don't reach 42.5 again
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