25/03/24 Weekly outlook
Updated
Last weeks high: $68975.9
Last weeks low: $64863.9
Midpoint: $60752.0
Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752, and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first.
So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows, leading to negative volume and a drop in price.
I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the 58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion.
The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their 10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing 100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. .
This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally.
25 Days to The Halving
This weeks focus:
- BTC S/R Flip
- ETH RWA's
Last weeks low: $64863.9
Midpoint: $60752.0
Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752, and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first.
So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows, leading to negative volume and a drop in price.
I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the 58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion.
The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their 10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing 100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. .
This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally.
25 Days to The Halving
This weeks focus:
- BTC S/R Flip
- ETH RWA's
Note
BTC now at the S/R level. very important next few hours/days.Note
BTC looking to retest the previous weeks high/ '21 ATH Need a strong reaction here to keep momentum and work towards a new high.
We do not want to see a confirmation of a lower high if the uptrend is to continue.
Note
Looks like we're ranging between the previous '21 ATH and 71KThere is potential for a weekend scam pump but they usually can't be trusted and need confirmation in the week. No new BTC trades for now but looking to take advantage ALTS & Narrative plays
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