BTC trditional approach
Hello Everyone,
Yesterday I posted the Elliott Wave analysis, and Today I decided to give you a more traditional view. They complement each other, and they should be used together. Elliott Wave has far better long-term and short-term forecasting power, and the traditional is excellent to confirm The Elliott Wave prediction or debunk it. So they should always be used together.
I tried to label each of the visual indicators in the chart to help you understand.
BTC is trading in a rectangle pattern short term, and this gives a specific target both ways up or down in case of a breakout. The targets are 58500 in case of upwards breakout and 39500 in case of downwards breakout.
Either way, you should be able to profit from this move (up/down) in the futures market.
There are a few different resistances that are pressing BTC downwards. However, strong supports hold BTC with the 52 Week VWMA and different VWAP. Nevertheless, if we look at the 52 weeks simple MA (48100), BTC has now closed below, so you should all be on alert mode. BTC must reclaim the 52 week SMA as many traders pay attention to it.
Another indicator that I believe is important to track right now is the Stoch RSI
. Although many doubt its use, many retail traders trade using only the Stoch RSI, which gives the indicators strong validity. BTC has reset on the daily frame; however, it is starting to turn bullish, but the price is struggling to follow. This will be bearish if the Stoch RSI reaches overbought conditions and BTC won't move and reclaim the 48k level strongly.
Nevertheless, I am bullish right now. I expect BTC to retest 45500 in the first part of the week to finally bounce and head to 52k.
As I have shown in my previous charts, I doubt a capitulation event at this point, and I am expecting BTC to reach 58k in the next few weeks.
Why?
- Bullish engulfing on the weekly timeframe and a bullish cross of the Stoch RSI
- Oversold
- Elliott wave most probable scenario, in my view, is an ascending triangle (Bounce from this level)
- Confluence of Long-term strong supports
- Confluence of different resistances turned support (retest)
- Break and retest of the diagonal trendline resistance weakening bearish momentum
- Higher High and Higher Low structure NOT invalidate yet signalling an uptrend
In conclusion, I am still expecting a bounce from here starting from the middle of this week. However, I would like to stress that the macro conditions are very confusional right now (I never trade on the news, and I do not pay attention to them usually) with the dollar strengthening due to the anticipated interest rates and announced by Powell. 2022 should have a deflationary bias, making it very hard for risky assets to start a raging bull run. However, history also shows that no market condition is equal, and what happens in one deflationary market do not repeat in the next one. This can be appreciated from different historical charts in which DJI commodities have rallied and plunged during similar conditions during different periods, so no market condition is equal. That is why I stick to Technical Analysis and avoid listening to the news. FA and TA need to be looked at together but remember price action will always be king whether FA supports it or not, so follow the price and not the word of mouths.
2022 will be interesting, and many will reason the market with the different markets conditions and bla bla the reality is that if you follow the price, you win. Reasoning comes later when action has already happened, often as an excuse.
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Yesterday I posted the Elliott Wave analysis, and Today I decided to give you a more traditional view. They complement each other, and they should be used together. Elliott Wave has far better long-term and short-term forecasting power, and the traditional is excellent to confirm The Elliott Wave prediction or debunk it. So they should always be used together.
I tried to label each of the visual indicators in the chart to help you understand.
BTC is trading in a rectangle pattern short term, and this gives a specific target both ways up or down in case of a breakout. The targets are 58500 in case of upwards breakout and 39500 in case of downwards breakout.
Either way, you should be able to profit from this move (up/down) in the futures market.
There are a few different resistances that are pressing BTC downwards. However, strong supports hold BTC with the 52 Week VWMA and different VWAP. Nevertheless, if we look at the 52 weeks simple MA (48100), BTC has now closed below, so you should all be on alert mode. BTC must reclaim the 52 week SMA as many traders pay attention to it.
Another indicator that I believe is important to track right now is the Stoch RSI
. Although many doubt its use, many retail traders trade using only the Stoch RSI, which gives the indicators strong validity. BTC has reset on the daily frame; however, it is starting to turn bullish, but the price is struggling to follow. This will be bearish if the Stoch RSI reaches overbought conditions and BTC won't move and reclaim the 48k level strongly.
Nevertheless, I am bullish right now. I expect BTC to retest 45500 in the first part of the week to finally bounce and head to 52k.
As I have shown in my previous charts, I doubt a capitulation event at this point, and I am expecting BTC to reach 58k in the next few weeks.
Why?
- Bullish engulfing on the weekly timeframe and a bullish cross of the Stoch RSI
- Oversold
- Elliott wave most probable scenario, in my view, is an ascending triangle (Bounce from this level)
- Confluence of Long-term strong supports
- Confluence of different resistances turned support (retest)
- Break and retest of the diagonal trendline resistance weakening bearish momentum
- Higher High and Higher Low structure NOT invalidate yet signalling an uptrend
In conclusion, I am still expecting a bounce from here starting from the middle of this week. However, I would like to stress that the macro conditions are very confusional right now (I never trade on the news, and I do not pay attention to them usually) with the dollar strengthening due to the anticipated interest rates and announced by Powell. 2022 should have a deflationary bias, making it very hard for risky assets to start a raging bull run. However, history also shows that no market condition is equal, and what happens in one deflationary market do not repeat in the next one. This can be appreciated from different historical charts in which DJI commodities have rallied and plunged during similar conditions during different periods, so no market condition is equal. That is why I stick to Technical Analysis and avoid listening to the news. FA and TA need to be looked at together but remember price action will always be king whether FA supports it or not, so follow the price and not the word of mouths.
2022 will be interesting, and many will reason the market with the different markets conditions and bla bla the reality is that if you follow the price, you win. Reasoning comes later when action has already happened, often as an excuse.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
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