WHERE BITCOIN IS HEADED NEXT, LONG OR SHORT? HERE ME OUT!
Updated
BTC/USDT is currently at the edge of a structure and above an area of value at 45888.01 indicated by the blue rayline. If we look at the daily chart, we can see an outer structure marked with the upper and lower trend lines, then we see that while price has broken above the blue rayline and it seems bullish, it has only just made a third touch with the upper trend line of our outer structure. If today's candle closes below this upper trend line to produce something like an evening star, then I think the bullish break above the blue rayline is a trap to catch a lot of traders at the wrong side of the market and we are most likely to see a downward movement to produce a third touch on the lower trend line and complete the outer structure. (three touch pattern).
If you look at the 4H screenshot, you can see my forecast clearer. First, you can see a three touch ascending channel (a reversal pattern) breaking the value area indicated by the blue rayline while at the same time completing a third touch on the upper trendline of the outer structure from the daily timeframe. Now this doesn't mean sell immediately on open market, I will wait for price to move downwards and create a continuation correction pattern, it could be in form of a bearish flag as I have illustrated on the chart. If this happens, there are two and entries and two take profits. The first entry is the risky entry which I marked as RE, that is on the third touch of the upper trend line of the bearish flag and your stop loss could be above the upper trend line of the outer structure from the daily TF. The second possible entry is a conservative entry which I have marked as CE on the chart, this is entering upon the completion of the bear flag, and your stop loss can be above the upper trend line of the flag. The first take profit is at the base of the ascending channel which is marked with red rayline and the second take profit is at the anticipated third touch of the lower trend line of the outer structure.
Now, while I think this is what might likely happen, I also understand that the market is not obligated to obey me, therefore the image above shows what could possibly happen. From the current price we could create a continuation correction pattern similar to what we have at where I marked as A, if price breaks and closes above the upper trend line of the outer structure from the daily timeframe, then price should continue to rise and we can look for longs to the next area of value at 52171.23. These are the probable and possible scenarios that could play out, so watch out for the close of today's candle, to see if we break above the upper trend line of the outer structure or if we close below it and form an Evening star.
Note
BTC is following the predicted path so far, if we get a bearish flag as i have forecasted in the image above, I will look to scaling-in again with a risk entry which is upon the third touch of the upper trend line of the bear flag and short to around 37611.53 marked with the blue rayline as first take profit and then the yellow lower trend lind of our outer structure would be my second take profit.
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